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Monetary Tightening in Question, EUR/USD Continues March Higher

February 4, 2016 by

EUR/USD extended its rally today following dovish comments from New York Fed President William Dudley that led to speculations that the Federal Reserve would not be able to perform even a single interest rate hike this year. US economic data was not helping the dollar either with rising jobless claims and falling factory orders.

Initial jobless claims ticked up from 277k to 285k last week, exceeding the median analysts’ projection of 279k. (Event A on the chart.)

Nonfarm productivity fell 3.0% in Q4 2015, two times the forecast drop of 1.5%. Productivity was up 2.1% in Q3 2015. (Event A on the chart.)

Factory orders plunged 2.9% in December. That is compared the predicted fall of 2.5% and the November’s decrease of 0.7% (revised from 0.2%). (Event B on the chart.)

EUR/USD as of 2016-02-04

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