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Is It All Over for Silver?

May 9, 2011 by

What might seem a tragedy for many home-bred silver investors could be a profitable trading opportunity for silver skeptics. Although the silver is growing for the second day in a row today, it’s still far below its peak level of $49.73 per troy ounce that was reached on April 25. While some argue that the bubble has bursted and offer their analysis of the event. It’s hard to predict the further movement of this commodity, but the consensus among the market analysts seems to be on a bearish side.

While the reasons for the 31.7% fall during 6 days of trading may be much complex than we assume, some trading experts share their opinion on topic. Lior Cohen suggests that ECB’s decision not to change the interest rates on May 5 as the catalyst for the drop in silver. Osama bin Laden’s assassination on May 2 is offered as a possible explanation by Trading Daily. Another reason (stated by Gold and Silver Blog) could be the decision of COMEX to raise the margin requirements for trading silver (up to $21,600 per contract for speculative trading and to $16,000 per contract for hedging as of May 9).

Of course, it may be a combination of various factors or some hidden reasons that are unknown to the general public, but some traders have seen it coming as of May 1st and have warned others. While the breakdown from the upward trend has been already evident on May 2, Eric Swarts did a great job explaining his understanding of the situation and what will happen next.

Following a successful brainstorming of the EUR/USD performance in April, I ask my readers to share their sentiment on the current situation with silver. Although silver isn’t a currency pair, it’s offered by many Forex brokers, and I am pretty sure that many FX traders are good at analyzing this precious metal as well:

Is the rally over for silver?

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As you can see on this monthly chart, silver bounced off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level:

Silver Monthly Chart After Bubble 2011

If you want to share your opinion or comments regarding the chances for silver to return to its strong bullish trend or to get back to pre-bubble trading levels, feel free to reply using the form below.

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