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Forecast for 2009 — Currencies, Oil, Interest Rates

January 3, 2009 (Last updated on September 10, 2018) by

My last forecast (for the year 2008) missed the real world market action significantly. The financial crisis made a lot of the forecasts made by the analysts and traders useless but, nevertheless, I still wish to offer my vision for the next year. This is just my opinion and it shouldn’t be taken as a serious forecast or some guide for trading.

EUR/USD will go down in 2009 and will probably reach 1.2000–1.2400 and then jump up to about 1.3000.
GBP/USD will head down; probably, to a parity.
USD/JPY will be very volatile, falling down to about 80.00 and rising up to about 100.00.
EUR/JPY will be even more volatile ending up the year 2009 not far from 130.00.

Oil. My last forecast on this important commodity missed its real trading range by the tens of dollars. In 2009 the oil will most probably remain below $75/barrel and will probably reach its bottom near $30.

Interest rates will remain quite low in 2009 but, starting from the middle of the year, the central banks will begin to increase them gradually:
Fed’s one will be near 1% by the end of 2009.
ECB — close to 2%.
Bank of England — ~1%.
Bank of Japan — ~0.5%.

5 Responses to “Forecast for 2009 — Currencies, Oil, Interest Rates”

  1. Malik Shahzad Tahir

    Can you please specifically shed some light on Euro/USD forecast for year 2009. I am a beginner and studying about Euro/USD. What I have found is that it is expected that up to the end of first half of 2009, Euro will remain strong and will gain but in the 2nd half of 2009, USD will start to gain back. What is your opinion?


  2. Andrei

    I don’t think that dollar can grow up significantly in the second half of 2009 because it will be under the pressure from all the printed money Fed is creating to stimulate the economy.


  3. Malik Shahzad Tahir

    Isn’t true that the strength of Dollar relies on not only economic but also the political factors driven by US. We see that the new government is changing the US lines of action and trying to improve the political image of the country. This will add to the economic efforts to attain a growth trend in Dollar. What is your opinion?


    Andrei Reply:

    Actually, I don’t think U.S. external policies influence dollar that much. It’s more influenced by the economic policies.


  4. Brunon

    Forex Market is too risky, if you don’t have a good strategy, better dont even think in trading


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