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EUR/USD Trades Mostly Sideways

May 4, 2016 by

Today, EUR/USD was meandering without a clear direction. Most of economic reports released from the United States during the trading session were good. But among the bad ones was the very important employment report that overshadowed better macroeconomic indicators, preventing the dollar from moving higher. Now, traders are concerned that nonfarm payrolls released later this week may also come out weaker than expected.

ADP employment increased by 156k in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The figure was nowhere near the predicted 205k and the previous month’s 194k. (Event A on the chart.)

Nonfarm productivity fell 1.0% in Q1 2016, a bit less than analysts had predicted (1.3%). The previous quarter’s drop was revised from 3.0% to 2.2%. (Event B on the chart.)

Trade balance deficit shrank to $40.4 billion in March down from $47.0 billion in February. The average forecast was pointing at $45.6 billion as a possible value. (Event B on the chart.)

Final Markit services PMI rose to 52.8 in April up from 51.3 in March. Market participants had expected the same 52.1 reading as in the preliminary estimate. (Event C on the chart.)

ISM services PMI rose from 54.5% to 55.7% last month, also beating market expectations (54.9%). (Event D on the chart.)

Factory orders rose 1.1% in March compared to the median forecast of 0.7% growth. The previous month’s reading was revised from -1.7% down to -1.9%. (Event D on the chart.)

US crude oil inventories expanded by 2.8 million barrels last, far exceeding the forecast increase of 0.6%. The stockpiles grew by 2.0 million the week before. (Event E on the chart.)

EUR/USD as of 2016-05-04

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