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EUR/USD Surges on Minutes Release

July 10, 2013 by

The US dollar was weak versus the euro for the whole trading session today, even before any major releases have been out in the United States. Inventories reports pushed the EUR/USD currency pair even higher, and then it rallied in reaction FOMC minutes release.

US wholesale inventories demonstrated a drop by 0.5% in May, following 0.1% decline in April. The median forecast was for a 0.3% gain in wholesale inventories. (Event A on the chart.)

US crude oil inventories fell by 9.9 million barrels during the week that ended on July 5, exceeding the forecasts of 3.2 million barrels decline. The week before, they dropped by 10.3 million barrels. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, following a 1.7 million barrel drop and a forecast for 1 million barrel growth. (Event B on the chart.)

Minutes of the FOMC June 18–19 meeting have been released today (Event C on the chart.) They show that two of the board members are positioned against the current monetary policy. One member (James Bullard) believes it to be too “non-inflationary“:

Mr. Bullard dissented because he believed that, in light of recent low readings on inflation, the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its goal of 2 percent inflation.

Another member (Esther L. George) continued to voice concerns regarding the current monetary policy, which is too loose in her opinion:

Ms. George dissented because she viewed the ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and in the outlook as warranting a deliberate statement from the Committee at this meeting that the pace of its asset purchases would be reduced in the very near future.

On Monday, a report on consumer credit was released in the USA. It has shown a rise by $19.615 billion in May from April, when the growth was reported at $10.867 billion. The forecast value was at $12.5 billion for the month. (Not shown on the chart.)

EUR/USD as of 2013-07-10

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