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EUR/USD Rises as Fed Keeps Stimulus Intact

July 31, 2013 (Last updated on August 1, 2013) by

EUR/USD climbed today as the Federal Reserve did not mention stimulus reduction. What is more, the central bank hinted that accommodative policy will remain for a long time. Most of today’s data was good though, suggesting that the economy can survive without excessive stimulus. Still, the Fed statement overshadowed other reports.

ADP employment growth was at 200k in July, almost unchanged from the previous month’s 198k (revised positively from 188k). The actual data was better than the consensus forecast of 179k. (Event A on the chart.)

US GDP rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2013 after rising 1.1% in the first quarter. (Event B on the chart.)

Chicago PMI rose from 51.6 in June to 52.3 in July. The increase was smaller than the an advance to 53.7 analysts have predicted. (Event C on the chart.)

Crude oil inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week compared to the forecast decrease by 2.1 million and the previous week’s drop by 2.8 million. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week. (Event D on the chart.)

FOMC released its statement, showing no changes to monetary policy and saying (event E on the chart):

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.

EUR/USD for 2013-07-31

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