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EUR/USD Rallies on Increase of Bailout Fund, Can It Keep Gains?

March 30, 2012 by

EUR/USD climbed today, erasing yesterday’s losses, after European finance ministers agreed to boost the firewall against the debt crisis. The euro’s rally stalled, though, and the shared 17-nation currency is gradually falling back to the opening level. As for the United States, the data today was relatively good, even though some reports were worse than expected.

Personal income and spending rose in February. Income rose 0.2%, the same rate of growth as in January (which was revised from 0.3%), below market expectations of 0.4%. Spending increased 0.8%, above forecast of 0.6% and the January reading of 0.4% (revised from 0.2%). (Event A on the chart.)

Chicago PMI was at 62.2 in March (seasonally adjusted). That’s compared to the forecast value of 63.2 and the February figure of 64.0. (Event B on the chart.)

Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 76.2 in March, according to the revised estimate, compared to the preliminary 74.3. A drop to 74.9 from the February reading of 75.3 was predicted by market analysts. The data showed more households reported that their financial situation improved than anytime in the past four years as consumers were optimistic about income and job gains. Perhaps households were even too optimistic and the expectations are urealistically high, as the report suggested. (Event C on the chart.)

EUR/USD for 2012-03-30

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