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EUR/USD Little Changed as Fundamentals Hard to Interpret

August 31, 2011 by

EUR/USD traded mostly sideways today. It plunged down recently, but quickly recovers as of present time. The fundamentals in the US are mixed. While employment was even worse than expected by rather pessimistic analysts, Chicago Business Barometer fell less than predicted and factory orders increased above expectations.

ADP employment increased by 91k jobs in August from July. That’s a worse result than predicted 102k and July change of 109k (revised from 114k). (Event A on the chart.)

Chicago PMI fell to 56.5 in August, the lowest level in 21 months, from 58.8 in July. Still, the index signaled about 23rd month of business expansion. The median forecast was 54.3. (Event B on the chart.)

Factory orders rose 2.4% in July, following the drop by 0.4% in June (revised from 0.8%). Forecasts were less optimistic, anticipating only 1.8% growth. (Event C on the chart.)

Crude oil inventories increased by 5.3 million barrels from the previous week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range. (Event D on the chart.)

EUR/USD for 2011-08-31

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