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EUR/USD Higher as German Data Damps ECB Stimulus Bets

April 1, 2014 by Vladimir Vyun

EUR/USD ticked higher today, rising for the third straight trading session, as a report showed that German unemployment fell more than was expected. (Event A on the chart.) There were other good economic reports from Europe too, leading to speculations that the European Central Bank will refrain from expanding its stimulus program during the policy meeting on April 3. Meanwhile, data from the United States was mostly disappointing. Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen was speaking yesterday, and her comments were rather dovish, signaling that the Fed will likely not accelerate the pace of stimulus reductions.

ISM manufacturing PMI was at 53.7% in March. It was above the February value of 53.2% but below the forecast reading of 54.2%. (Event B on the chart.)

Construction spending grew 0.1% in February from January, a bit slower that was expected — 0.2%. The previous month’s change was revised negatively from 0.1% to -0.2%. (Event B on the chart.)

Yesterday, a report on Chicago PMI was released, showing a drop from 59.8 in February to 55.9 in March. It was far bigger than the fall to 59.2 that analysts had anticipated. (Not shown on the chart.)

EUR/USD-2014-04-01

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