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EUR/USD Trading Ignores US Macros

March 7, 2018 by

The euro fell against the US dollar somewhat during today’s trading session. Still, the currency pair seemed to be unmoved by the fundamental indicators that have been released in the USA today. Although they were mixed, some of them deviated from the forecast values quite significantly.

ADP employment rose by 235k jobs in February following 244k increase in January and well above the median forecast of 200k. (Event A on the chart.)

Nonfarm productivity was unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2017 according to the final report, which is slightly better than the preliminary reading of 0.1% decline. Still, it is nowhere near as good as 2.7% growth reported for the third quarter of the same year. (Event B on the chart.)

US trade balance logged a deficit of $56.6 billion in January, worse than the negatively revised December value of $53.9 billion and also worse than the median forecast of $55.0 billion. (Event B on the chart.)

Crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels during the week ending on March 2. The current growth follows 3.0 million barrels increase of the previous week. The market participants had expected the same 3.0 million barrels growth for this week too. Total motor gasoline inventories declined by 0.8 million barrels during the same period after rising by 2.5 million barrels earlier. (Event C on the chart.)

Consumer credit rose by $13.9 billion in January in the United States. The growth disappointed dollar bulls who expected an increase by $18.4 billion. However, December consumer credit growth was revised from $18.4 billion to $19.2 billion. (Event D on the chart.)

Yesterday, a report on factory orders has shown a drop by 1.4% in January following an increase by 1.8% in December. The orders declined in line with the average expectations. (Not shown on the chart.)

EUR/USD as of 2018-03-07

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