Forex Blog

First-hand Forex trading experience and information about foreign exchange market that will be useful to traders


EUR/USD Rises Intraday, Unable to Keep Gains

November 21, 2019 by

EUR/USD rose intraday but has retreated by now. The currency pair reversed its rally following the release of a better-than-expected manufacturing report. Another possible reason for the drop of the EUR/USD pair was renewed optimism for a US-China trade deal.

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index climbed to 10.4 in November from 5.6 in October, far exceeding the average forecast of 7.0. (Event A on the chart.)

Initial jobless claims were at the seasonally adjusted level of 227k last week, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level, whereas analysts had predicted a decrease to 215k. (Event A on the chart.)

Leading indicators declined by 0.1% in October, matching forecasts exactly. The previous month’s decline got a negative revision from 0.1% to 0.2%. (Event B on the chart.)

Existing home sales rose to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in October from 5.36 million in September. Experts had predicted a bit higher value of 5.49 million. (Event B on the chart.)

On Monday, a report on net foreign purchases was released, showing a value of $49.5 billion in September, which was below the consensus forecast of $70.3 billion. The August value was at -$41.2 billion. (Not shown on the chart.)

On Tuesday, a report on housing starts and building permits in October was released. Housing starts were at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million, up from 1.27 million in September. Building permits were at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.46 million, up from 1.39 million in the previous month. The consensus forecast was at 1.32 million and 1.39 million respectively. (Not shown on the chart.)

Yesterday, a couple of reports were released (not shown on the chart):

US crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week, matching forecasts, after rising by 2.2 million barrels the week before. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels.

FOMC released minutes of its October monetary policy meeting at which the Committee cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points. The notes said about monetary policy going forward:

With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated to support the outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective and likely would remain so as long as incoming information about the economy did not result in a material reassessment of the economic outlook.

If you have any comments on the recent EUR/USD action, please reply using the form below.

Leave a Reply

required (will not be published)