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EUR/USD Rises as Market Sentiment Recovers

October 7, 2020 by

EUR/USD rose on Wednesday after plunging on Tuesday due to the announcement that US President Donald Trump pulled out of talks about a coronavirus relief package. But he also announced smaller stimulus packages, and that apparently was enough for markets to calm down. The dollar was also under pressure from the outlook for the victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the upcoming US presidential election.

US crude oil inventories rose by 0.5 million barrels last week instead of falling by 1.2 million barrels as analysts had predicted and were far above the five-year average for this time of year. The stockpiles decreased by 2.0 million barrels the week before. Total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels and were at about the five-year average. (Event A on the chart.)

FOMC released minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. (Event B on the chart.) The members of the Committee were less pessimistic than previously, saying:

Given the apparent resilience of the U.S. economy to the acceleration in the spread of the pandemic during the summer, the staff judged that a significantly more pessimistic economic outcome, which the staff had previously viewed as no less plausible than the baseline forecast and had featured a renewed downturn in economic activity, was now less likely than the baseline forecast.

The notes pointed out, though, that uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic remains high and risks to economic recovery are still significant:

The staff continued to observe that the uncertainty related to the course of the COVID‑19 pandemic and its associated economic effects was extremely elevated and that the risks to the outlook were still tilted to the downside.

Consumer credit fell by $7.2 billion in August. That was a total surprise to analysts, who were anticipating the same rate of growth as in July when the indicator rose by $14.7 billion (revised up from $12.3 billion). (Event C on the chart.)

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