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EUR/USD Falls, Recovers Later

September 30, 2020 by

EUR/USD fell today but has currently recovered most of its losses. Markets largely ignored events that were deemed important, like yesterday’s US presidential debates or today’s US GDP and employment data. Trading was largely subdued, and market analysts explained that by the reluctance of investors to make big moves at the end of the month.

ADP employment climbed by 749k in August, exceeding the median forecast of 650k. The previous month’s increase got a positive revision from 428k to 481k. (Event A on the chart.)

Chicago PMI jumped from 51.2 in August to 62.4 in September, whereas analysts had predicted a much smaller increase to 52.0. The September value was the highest reading since December 2018. (Event B on the chart.)

US GDP was finalized at -31.4% in Q2 2020. Despite the huge drop, it was a better reading than the median forecast and the preliminary estimate of -31.7%. The indicator logged a negative change of -5.0% in Q1. (Event B on the chart.)

Pending home sales increased by 8.8% to a record high in August. That compared with the forecast increase of 3.1% and the previous month’s gain of 5.9%. (Event C on the chart.)

Crude oil inventories dropped by 2 million barrels last week instead of rising by 1 million barrels as analysts had predicted. Despite the drop, the stockpiles remained high above the five-year average for this time of year. The reserve decreased by 1.6 million barrels the week before. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels and were also above the five-year average. (Event D on the chart.)

If you have any comments on the recent EUR/USD action, please reply using the form below.

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