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EUR/USD Fails to Stage Rally on Back of Weak NFP

January 5, 2018 by

US nonfarm payrolls came out worse than analysts expected. It was a stark contrast to the private ADP employment report released earlier this week, which surprised market participants positively. EUR/USD attempted to rise after the release, but the rally was extremely short-lived, and the currency fell below the pre-rally levels. Most other macroeconomic releases that came out over the current trading session were disappointing as well, but that did not prevent the dollar from demonstrating surprising strength.

US nonfarm payrolls grew by 148k in December, far less than analysts had predicted — 190k. On a positive note, the November increase got a positive revision from 228k to 252k. Unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, as was expected. Average hourly earning rose 0.3% in December, also matching expectations. Meanwhile, the November increase, which had already missed forecasts, got a negative revision from 0.2% to just 0.1%. (Event A on the chart.)

Trade balance deficit widened to $50.5 billion in November up from $48.9 billion in October, while analysts had predicted a smaller increase to $49.7 billion. (Event A on the chart.)

ISM services PMI from 57.4% in November to 55.9% in December. Most experts did not anticipate that, thinking that the index would edge up a little to about 57.6%. (Event B on the chart.)

Factory orders rose by 1.3% in November. That was the only positive surprise today as analysts had predicted a smaller increase by 1.1%. What is more, the October change was revised from -0.1% to +0.4%. (Event B on the chart.)

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