USD/CAD Analisis

Dmitriy Enrst

Active Trader
Mar 14, 2015
186
2
34
USDCAD continued to increase on Thursday, and as a result it tested 1.2537 level. Then this pair was outsold and went to 1.2410 support level. While USDCAD trades above 1.2400-1.2375, it has some chances for growth, but if some weak data of USA GDP appears, the pair can break this support. If there is reverse situation, the pair will go to current High.
USDCADH1pn_3164842_17508615.png
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


Frankly I feel that this is a market that can be difficult to buy or sell anytime soon. After all, the oil markets are still very volatile, and that of course has a massive amount of influence on the value the Canadian dollar itself.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52


The USDCAD broke and held above 1.3000 resistance. Correction down into the 1.3000 support will most likely trigger consolidation, followed by the rebound up and continuation of the bullish trend.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the session on Thursday, clearing the top of the hammer that informed on Wednesday. I had suggested that this market was going to continue to consolidate in the area just above, and that looks like what it did after all.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, showing quite a bit of volatility but at the end of the day we really went nowhere. Because of this, we feel that the longer-term trend to the upside continues, and it’s only a matter of time before the buyers get involved again.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png



USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.1919, the fall from 1.3213 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Near term support is at 1.2850, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4000 area.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


There is enough support between the 1.30 level, and the 1.28 handle below to turn the market back around if we get some type of supportive candle in that general vicinity, we would be buyers. We would also be buyers above the 1.32 handle as well.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png

The USD/CAD pair initially fell on Friday, but found enough support near the 1.30 level to turn things back around. By doing so, it looks as if the market is ready to continue to try to go higher. If we can break above the 1.32 handle, we feel that this market continues to go towards the 1.35 level.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


The USD/CAD pair continues to go back and forth, forming a neutral candle for the week. Because of this, we feel that the market is simply going to hang about in this general vicinity. We feel that there is more than enough support below at the 1.30 level to keep the market afloat, so therefore we have no interest in selling. However, we do not have a signal to start buying yet so we are simply sitting on the sidelines as far as longer-term trades are concerned.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the day on Tuesday, but ultimately found buyers below to form a bit of a hammer. With this, we feel that the USD/CAD pair will eventually break out to the upside, and once we get above the 1.33 handle we feel that the market would then go to the 1.35 level. We have no interest whatsoever in selling, we believe that the absolute “floor” is in the region of the 1.30 handle.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


At this point in time, we do not have a scenario in which we sell this pair until we get well below the 1.28 handle, something that does not seem very likely. With that, we are looking for impulsive candles to the upside as well as a break above the top of the hammer in order to take advantage of what seems to be a well-established trend. At that point in time, we would assume that the market would test the 1.3350 level, and then possibly the 1.35 level after that.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.3353 is still viewed as a consolidation pattern. And, as long as 1.2951 support holds, further rally is still expected.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


Early strength for USDCAD stalled at the 55-day average at 1.3173, and this then saw a reversal lower to undercut price/21day average support at 1.3064/40. This keeps the immediate risks still lower to support. Follow through below 1.3040/37 should see weakness extend to the 61.8% retracement of the October rally at 1.3003, with scope for 1.2990.
 

Steve Lock

Master Trader
Feb 28, 2015
202
1
52
usdcad-h1-riston-capital-ltd.png


The indicators of the daily chart just turned above the line last night and this morning also those of the s/t charts are positive suggesting further upside potential. In the hourly chart we have however still a negative reversal situation limiting the upside. The downside potential has however decreased and on top of that since last night the dollar moved also above the 200 hours line, now s/t support at 1,3147!! While above this line we will probably see higher levels.