Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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GBP/USD bounced off of 1.3230

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"We can stick with our main scenario that the Fed won't raise rates in September. All the talk about a possible rate hike in September turned out to be noise."
- Standard Chartered Bank (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

As expected, the currency pair rebounded after approaching the lower bound of the five-week channel. The rally from 1.3230 is also supported by the near-term technicals. The first target is a weekly and monthly R1 cluster, and we expect the price to go all the way to 1.3550 before there is a notable sell-off. Additional resistance is at 1.3650 (monthly R2 and 38.2% Fibo), followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3740. However, in case of a close beneath 1.3250 the focus will immediately shift to 1.3130, namely the monthly pivot point.

Traders' Sentiment

Sentiment returned to the levels seen five days ago, when the bears had the advantage with the 14 percentage point lead. As for the pending orders, 56% are placed to sell and 44% are placed to buy the Sterling against the Dollar.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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USD/JPY above 100 but below 103 yen

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"In the near-term, yen momentum will depend on the Bank of Japan's meeting, with expectations low for the Fed to move. Global equity markets are lower overall and that tends to be supportive for the yen."
- Wells Fargo Securities LLC (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

The latest attempt of USD/JPY to recover was denied by 102.70, where the weekly pivot point merges with the 55-day SMA, and we are again below the monthly PP. Accordingly, the price is likely to keep falling until it encounters 100.80/80. There the US Dollar will meet a strong demand area, represented by the monthly S1, and even more importantly, the 50% retracement of the 2012-2015 up-move. For the time being we are waiting which of the key levels (psychological 100 yen or the eight-month down-trend at 103 yen) is going to give in first.

Traders' Sentiment

Yesterday's dip in the share of long positions was quickly reversed, and now 68% of traders are bulls, just like last Tuesday. Concerning the orders, there is no discernible difference between the amounts of buy (51%) and sell (49%) commands.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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Gold remains squeezed in

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"For the manager of the largest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, not even a surprise increase in U.S. borrowing costs this month would be enough to damp investor appetite for gold."
– based Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook

On early Tuesday morning, the bullion had almost touched the weekly PP at 1,333.94. However, the yellow metal remains squeezed in between a strong support level represented by the monthly PP at 1,326.43 and a resistance cluster from the upside made up from the 20 and 100-day SMAs respectively at 1,330.49 and 1,336.33 and the weekly PP 1,333.94. Due to this fact and the daily aggregate technical indicators, which forecast no changes in the metal's price during today, it is most likely that the metal will continue fluctuating between these levels until some fundamentals set a direction for the bullion.

Traders' Sentiment

Trader open positions are almost neutral, as 49% of them are long. In the meantime, the expectations of a surge are growing, as 73% of pending commands are to buy.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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EUR/USD reaches trend line

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"Daniele Nouy, head of the ECB's supervisory arm, has made tackling non-performing loans a priority since the Frankfurt-based central bank began overseeing euro-area banks in 2014."
– based on Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook

The common European currency fell and confirmed a channel up pattern's lower trend line against the US Dollar on Tuesday and once more on Wednesday. However, the general trend of Wednesday's early morning trading indicates that the support provided by the channel's support line, combined with the 20 and 100-day simple moving averages around the level of 1.1210, is stronger than the resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1.1233. It is most likely, that the Euro will appreciate against the Buck by the end of today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment


The currency exchange pair is close to being oversold as 64% of open positions are short. However, pending commands are 53% to sell the Euro.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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GBP/USD dives under 1.3250; pair looks south

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"Given how dovish market pricing is, the hurdle for the dollar to rally is low, while the hurdle for it to fall in any meaningful way is substantial."
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

The support trendline (lower bound of the five-week channel) we expected to hold the pair failed before the Cable gained a solid foothold above 1.34 dollars, giving way for a sell-off. The immediate supports are represented by the 55-day SMA and monthly PP, but the current decline is likely to rush past the end-of-August lows of 1.3050 towards 1.2850, which proved to be significant both in July and August. In order for the pair to restore the bullish outlook, the price needs to close above 1.34 and confirm this level as the new support.

Traders' Sentiment

The number of bears decreased with depreciation of the Sterling—their share went from 57 to 52%. Nevertheless, there was no change whatsoever in the distribution between the buy (44%) and sell (56%) orders.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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USD/JPY probes down-trend

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"The media report is about the BOJ considering a deeper cut in negative rates, but in a seemingly more broader time frame. As such, expectations that the BOJ would ease next week have not risen excessively."
- Societe Generale (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

Despite a lack of events in the economic calendar the US Dollar managed to strengthen, and now there is a good chance of the pair settling above 102.70, where the weekly PP coincides with the 55-day SMA. If this is the case, the next resistance to try and stop the advancement will be 103.50, represented by the trendline that originated at the very beginning of the year. Additional resistance is at 104.80 (100-day SMA and monthly R1), but a breach of 103.50 is likely to be followed by a recovery to July highs at 107 yen.

Traders' Sentiment

Regardless of the latest rally in the value of the Greenback positioning in the SWFX market stays exactly the same. At the moment, 68% of traders are bulls just like yesterday. As for the orders, 52% are placed to buy and 48% are placed to sell the Dollar.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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Gold finds support on Wednesday

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"It's important for all gold stock investors to understand that anything can happen at next week's critically important FOMC and BoJ meetings."
- Graceland Investment Management (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal found support in the first weekly support level at 1,315.33 on Wednesday morning, and afterwards the bullion slightly rebounded to trade around 1,320. Previously, on Tuesday the metal was squeezed in between pivot points respectively at 1,326.43 and 1,333.94, as gold awaited for fundamental data to make a move. That came with comments from various representatives from the Federal Reserve. The Fed might continue to impact the metal, however, from a technical viewpoint the metal has confirmed once more a trend line, which means that this the expected larger rebound.

Traders' Sentiment

Trader open positions remain almost neutral, as 49% of them are short on Wednesday. In the meantime, pending commands are largely bullish, as 68% of them are to buy.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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EUR/USD trades above weekly PP

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"There are nested Head-and-Shoulders tops on the 60-minute and daily charts."
– Al Brooks, full-time trader for 28 years, (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

The common European currency had slightly retreated from the day's trading session's opening price against the US Dollar on Thursday morning. However, the currency exchange rate faces no resistance up to the level of 1.1326, where the first weekly resistance is located at. Moreover, the weekly R1 is part of a cluster made up also from the monthly R1 at 1.1334 and the upper Bollinger band. Due to that and the combination of other technical factors the rate is set to end today's session higher.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX trader sentiment remains unchanged at 64% long on Thursday morning. In addition, pending commands remain also unchanged at 53% to sell.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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GBP/USD to stay below 1.3320

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"When you look at at least the past year and you do some more formal regression analysis, it would suggest you get maybe 5 percent to maximum 10 percent gains against the euro, against the Aussie and the pound."
- Deutsche Bank AG (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

GBP/USD is currently pulling back after the pair broke out of the bullish channel to the downside. The gains from the monthly pivot point at 1.3126 that acted as a strong support area yesterday should be limited by 1.3320, where supply is implied by the weekly PP, 23.6% retracement of the ‘Brexit' sell-off and the lower bound of the channel that originated in mid-August. Once the ceiling is confirmed, the price should revisit yesterday's low and then extend the decline towards 1.29, which is the location of the monthly S1 and August low.

Traders' Sentiment

The share of bears increased, but insufficiently to change the sentiment that remains neutral with 46% of positions long and 54% of positions short. Similarly, there is no notable difference between the buy (48%) and sell (52%) orders.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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USD/JPY dives back under 102.70

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"It's interesting that we're seeing a little bit of risk aversion creep in."
- Barclays (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

USD/JPY fetched 103.40 yesterday, but eventually slid back under 102.70, which is represented by the weekly PP and 55-day SMA. The current support is at 102.16/03 (monthly PP and 20-day SMA), but the pair is unlikely to stay in this narrow corridor for long, considering the amount of high-impact events scheduled for today. We are still waiting for the price to break one of the two key levels, which is expected to determine further direction of the pair. The key resistance is at 103.50 and the key support is at 100 yen.

Traders' Sentiment

Judging by positioning in the SWFX market (69% are long), a majority of traders is waiting for a rally. However, this also means that the US Dollar is already overbought, and there is little room for new buyers to enter the market and push the price higher.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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XAU/USD tests resistance at 1,326.43

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"Now with the Fed talking up rate hikes, whether it be in September or December, Gold prices are softening down to levels of intermediate-term support."
– James Stanley, Currency Analyst, (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal tested the resistance of the monthly PP at 1,326.43 once more on Thursday morning. However, the bullion did not manage to break the resistance, as on Thursday morning it was even stronger than on Wednesday, as the 20-day SMA at 1,327.91 strengthened the pivot point. The almost unchanged market sentiment and daily aggregate technical indicators forecast that the metal will continue to fluctuate around the 1,320 level during the day, and the price will remain unchanged by the end of today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders remain almost neutral on the metal, as 52% of open positions are short on Thursday. In the meantime, pending commands remain largely bullish, as 70% of set up orders are to buy the metal.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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EUR/USD remains above weekly PP

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"Today's reports again serve to raise questions on the strength of the US consumer, who has consistently led the way with positive GDP readings in Q1 and Q2."
- Omar Habib (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook

The common European currency traded just above the weekly PP against the US Dollar on Friday morning. Previously, on Thursday the currency exchange rate began the day at almost the same position. However, after seeing a lot of volatility the pair ended the day at 1.1243, which is slightly below the opening price of 1.1249. Although, as the general trend of the rate is upwards aimed, and it is in an ascending channel pattern, it is most likely that the pair will soon surge. Moreover, daily aggregate technical indicators confirm the hypothesis of a rise of the exchange rate by the end of today's session.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders have not changed their positions, as they remain 64% short on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands are 54% to sell the pair.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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GBP/USD's rallies limited by 1.3320

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"We think sterling actually now looks expensive from a short-term fair-value perspective."
- BNP Paribas (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The Cable saw no change yesterday, finishing the day at the open price after testing both the resistance trendline and weekly S1 that is currently acting as support. Nevertheless, the bias is bearish, as the currency pair has recently broken out of the ascending channel to the downside. Next week we could see GBP/USD probing 1.2880 (August low and monthly S1), but there is also a notable demand area closer to the spot price, namely at 1.3126/12. This support zone is created by the monthly PP and weekly S2.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX sentiment remains unchanged in the sense that the difference between the numbers of bulls and bears is still insignificant—only 2 percentage points. In the meantime, we could note that the percentage of long positions went from 46 to 51%.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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USD/JPY gravitates to monthly PP

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"Dollar-yen, if anything, probably has a slight bias higher still from these levels."
- JPMorgan (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

USD/JPY keeps trading around the monthly pivot point, staying below the 55-day SMA at 102.60 and at the same time above the weekly S1 at 101.20. However, soon the pair will have to violate one of the key levels—resistance at 103.00 or support at 100.80/00, which will determine its future behavior. This is highly likely to happen already next week, as both the BOJ and the FOMC are to release monetary policy statements during next Wednesday, which promises a lot of volatility on September 21.

Traders' Sentiment

Despite the US Dollar being already overbought, the share of bulls increased even more—up to 70% from 69% seen yesterday and from 68% seen five days ago. As for the orders, however, there is no visible gap between the buy (52%) and sell (48%) commands.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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Gold begins Friday above trend line

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"Gold prices moved lower as the dollar gained traction against the yellow metal, as the softer than expected U.S. Inflation data allowed gold prices to ease."
– based on Daily FX

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal is no longer bouncing around the level of 1,320, as the metal retreated below the weekly S1 at 1,315.33. The fall occurred during Thursday's trading session, when the bullion ended the day's trading session at 1,313.10. In addition, the commodity touched the rising wedge pattern's support line, which on Friday is located at 1,312.94. On early Friday morning, gold was squeezed in tightly between the weekly S1 and the trend line. The price is most likely to stay at this level.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders are almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending commands are 65% to buy, as traders are still expecting a surge.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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EUR/USD recoups after major losses

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"A second tough week in a row for global equity markets after the summer volatility slumber, and the Euro continues to act like a safe haven dealing with rising central bank stimulus odds."
- Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist (based on Daily FX)


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency is appreciated against the US Dollar on Monday morning, as the rate found support in the combined cluster of 55 and 200-day SMAs. Previously, on late Friday evening the currency exchange rate fell, and the Euro booked a day of almost 100 pip loss against the Greenback. It is most likely that the exchange rate will move northwards to the combined cluster of the weekly and monthly pivot points around the level of 1.1195 by the end of today's trading session. However, it is unlikely that the resistance will be broken.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain largely bearish on the pair, as 62% of open positions are short on Monday. In the meantime, pending commands are 55% to sell the pair.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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GBP/USD hovers above 1.30

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"While other economic indicators have disappointed recently, August CPI inflation bucked the trend and gave Fed hawks some support in their battle to raise interest rates."
- CIBC (based on PoundSterlingLive)


Pair's Outlook

The British Pound plunged against the US Dollar on Friday, amid a strong reading of the US CPI. As a result, the main support area around 1.3140 failed to limit the losses, causing the Cable to drop as low as the 1.30 psychological level. Demand, represented by the 1.30 mark, could cause the pair to rebound, while lack of potential market movers today supports this outlook. Technical studies, however, are giving mixed signals today, unable to confirm the scenario. Consequently, we should not rule out the possibility of the Cable falling deeper down under 1.30, even though it seems unlikely today.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 56% of traders with a positive outlook towards the British currency today, compared to 51% on Friday. At the same time, the number of purchase orders edged up from 41 to 48%.

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Anastasia DC

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Apr 27, 2016
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USD/JPY likely to fall under 102.00

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"If anything we may see more about the yen and this is what the option market is pricing in. Given that the BoJ has had a good track record for disappointing the market since the start of the year, the risk is the yen could strengthen a little bit against the other majors."
- BBVA (based on Business Recorder)


Pair's Outlook
Despite a better-than-expected US CPI, the US Dollar failed to post solid gains on Friday. Today, however, the pair's potential to edge higher is limited, due to a tough resistance area located right on top of the opening price. Moreover, the USD/JPY currency pair remains in a down-trend, which only weighs on the pair's ability to appreciate. From below the Greenback is supported by the weekly S1, which is located at 101.37. However, a much stronger cluster lies around 100.60, represented by the monthly S1, the 50% Fibo, the weekly S2 and the Bollinger band. Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving mixed signals in the daily timeframe.

Traders' Sentiment

Today 70% of all open positions are long, unchanged since Friday. The share of buy orders, on the other hand, dropped from 52 to 29%.

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Anastasia DC

Active Trader
Apr 27, 2016
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Gold remains near support line on Monday

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"With the commodity continuing to hold on to its downside pressure, more weakness is envisaged in the new week."
– based on FX Techstrategy


Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal was struggling with the resistance put up by the newly formed weekly PP at 1,316.02. Previously, on Friday the bullion fell below the resistance put up by the rising wedge pattern's lower trend line at 1,312.88. However, as it was closing in on the 100-day SMA and the lower Bollinger band, the metal changed its direction and began a surge, which continued on Monday morning, as the XAU/USD rate approached the previously mentioned pivot point.

Traders' Sentiment
Trader open positions have remained unchanged, compared to Friday, as they are almost neutral with 51% of short positions. In the meantime, pending commands continue to indicate at large expectations of a surge, as 68% of set up orders are to buy the pair.

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Anastasia DC

Active Trader
Apr 27, 2016
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EUR/USD squeezed in on Tuesday

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"Sooner or later we will look for selling opportunities in this market. The matter what happens, expect volatility."
- Christopher Lewis, Analyst (based on FX Empire)


Pair's Outlook
The common European currency traded almost flat on Tuesday morning against the US Dollar. Previously, the currency exchange rate surged and ended day's trading at 1.1173 level. However, during the session it managed to reach the resistance cluster above it at 1.1190, and the rate bounced off it. The pairs fluctuations on Tuesday morning occur between the before mentioned resistance cluster and two simple moving averages below at 1.1156 and 1.1147. It is most likely, that the pair will remain in limbo between the two levels for the rest of the day.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remains short on the pair, as 61% of open positions are bearish. In the meantime, pending commands are 54% to sell the currency pair.

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