Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD risks falling deeper down

"We think that GBP weakness will largely be driven by the lowering of bond yields but then also by the balance sheet expansion of the BoE."
- Morgan Stanley (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling was unable to maintain trade above 1.30 yesterday, but, as expected, managed to find support around the 1.2950 mark. Even though the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band keep providing immediate support, risks are still skewed to the downside. A number of US fundamentals later today could provide the impetus for another leg down, however, a rally is also possible. Technical indicators somewhat support this outlook, as they are no longer giving bearish signals in the daily timeframe. The 1.3050 is likely to be the ceiling in case of a bullish development, while the nearest resistance rests only around 1.3160.

Traders' Sentiment
There are slightly more bulls today, namely 64%, compared to 55% on Thursday. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to sell the Pound returned to its Wednesday's level of 64% (previously 36%).

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY muted ahead of Retail Sales data

"The dollar appears to be on a much more solid footing than when markets were worried about the impact of Brexit. It may take time a bit but its direction is clearly looking upwards."
- FPG Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Although the USD/JPY currency pair completely erased Wednesday's losses yesterday and stabilised on top of the weekly PP again, technical indicators in all timeframes still suggest that more bearish momentum is to come. The 101.00 major level should be the bottom today, also being bolstered by the weekly S1. However, US fundamentals tend to surprise with strong figures, and another such surprise could trigger a rally today. The 102.50 mark should technically prevent the exchange rate from climbing higher, even though the nearest resistance lies circa 103.00.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment remains unchanged at 62%, but the share of purchase orders added 13 percentage points, having risen up to a total of 54%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY muted ahead of Retail Sales data

"The dollar appears to be on a much more solid footing than when markets were worried about the impact of Brexit. It may take time a bit but its direction is clearly looking upwards."
- FPG Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Although the USD/JPY currency pair completely erased Wednesday's losses yesterday and stabilised on top of the weekly PP again, technical indicators in all timeframes still suggest that more bearish momentum is to come. The 101.00 major level should be the bottom today, also being bolstered by the weekly S1. However, US fundamentals tend to surprise with strong figures, and another such surprise could trigger a rally today. The 102.50 mark should technically prevent the exchange rate from climbing higher, even though the nearest resistance lies circa 103.00.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment remains unchanged at 62%, but the share of purchase orders added 13 percentage points, having risen up to a total of 54%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold in limbo near 1,340 on Friday

"Gold continues to struggle near the 2011-2012 trendline."
– Jamie Saettele (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal did not manage to break the resistance put up by the weekly and monthly pivot points around the level of 1,345, as the commodity price fell just below the 20-day SMA at 1,338.56. On Friday morning, by 5:30 GMT the bullion had bounced above the simple moving average, as the session was opened higher at 1,338.98 than the previous close of 1,337.76. It is most likely that gold will move back up and approach the pivot points once more. However, the metal had been more volatile to the downside and even reached below the 20-day SMA on Friday morning.

Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment remained unchanged for the third consecutive session, as 52% of open positions are short on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands to buy have increased by 3%, as 56% of open orders were long.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold in limbo near 1,340 on Friday

"Gold continues to struggle near the 2011-2012 trendline."
– Jamie Saettele (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal did not manage to break the resistance put up by the weekly and monthly pivot points around the level of 1,345, as the commodity price fell just below the 20-day SMA at 1,338.56. On Friday morning, by 5:30 GMT the bullion had bounced above the simple moving average, as the session was opened higher at 1,338.98 than the previous close of 1,337.76. It is most likely that gold will move back up and approach the pivot points once more. However, the metal had been more volatile to the downside and even reached below the 20-day SMA on Friday morning.

Traders' Sentiment
Trader sentiment remained unchanged for the third consecutive session, as 52% of open positions are short on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands to buy have increased by 3%, as 56% of open orders were long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD surges to 1.12 mark on Tuesday

"Immediate support rests with the monthly open at 1.1170 with our near-term bullish invalidation now raised to Friday's low / slope support at 1.1131."
– Michael Boutros (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency continues to appreciate against the Greenback, as the rate has been flirting with the 1.12 mark for the past sessions. By 5:00 GMT on Tuesday the currency pair was at 1.1197, and it was set to surge to at least the level of 1.1230, where the 100-day SMA and weekly R1 provide a combined resistance. Previously, the currency exchange rate almost touched the before mentioned resistance level, as the Euro reached above the 1.1220 level on Friday. In addition, daily aggregate technical indicators support a surge of the pair during today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to be bearish, as 59% of open positions were short on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending commands are were 55% bearish.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD attempts to reclaim 1.29

"The pound is likely to keep slipping towards $1.2798 as the U.K. economy faces the risk of a downturn and amid the prospect of further easing by the BOE."
- Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The Sterling underperformed on Monday, having fallen under the 1.29 mark, but managing to find support at 1.2860. The GBP/USD remains support by the cluster around 1.2850, represented by the Bollinger band, the weekly and the monthly S1s, however, more Pound weakness could cause this area to be pierced. In case of a breach the next target would be the group of supports just under the 1.28 level, with the main one being the down-trend. Even though technical studies are also in favour of the bearish scenario, a possibility of the Cable ending the day in the green zone persists, but with no sufficient impetus for the exchange rate to close above the immediate resistance.

Traders' Sentiment
The number of bulls keeps rising, as 69% of traders hold long positions (previously 67%). The share of buy orders remains unchanged at 57%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY risks slipping to a fresh five-week low

"As long as markets continue to bet against a Fed rate hike anytime soon and the yen continues to ignore Japan's efforts to weaken it, dollar/yen could have significantly further to fall."
- Forex.com (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair remained flat yesterday, but experienced a rather sharp sell-off in the beginning of Tuesday, amid the return of risk-aversion. Technical indicators also point to the Buck's bearish outcome today, but the pair still has the potential to recover from its intraday lows if today's US inflation data surprises with strong figures. Moreover, the 101.00 psychological support remained intact for two weeks, despite volatility stretching lower. Downside pressure could lead the US Dollar even below the weekly S1, namely the nearest support, with the pair then once again facing the 100.00 mark.

Traders' Sentiment
Today 64% of all open positions are long, compared to 61% on Monday. Moreover, the number of orders to buy the Greenback surged dramatically, having risen from 40 to 83% over the past 24 hours.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold faces resistance at 1,345 on Tuesday

"An increase in the amount of gold bullion held by GLD and other bullion ETFs does not cause the gold price to rise."
– Steve Saville (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal managed to break through the resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1,340.78 and surged to 1,345 mark in the early Tuesday morning. Previously, on Monday gold had reached above the weekly PP and retreated. The metal now faces the monthly PP, which is located at 1,345.31. Taking into account the facts that the bullion for a short moment passed the resistance and the forecast of a surge indicated by the daily aggregate technical indicators, it is most likely that gold will continue to surge during today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders marked the fifth consecutive session of unchanged bearishness on Tuesday morning, as 58% of open positions were short. In the meantime, pending orders were neutral.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD tests the 1.13 mark

"While euro ended the day well off its highs versus the U.S. dollar, the break above the 100-day SMA puts momentum clearly on the side of EUR/USD bulls."
– Kathy Lien (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency surged and reached past the 1.13 mark against the US Dollar on Tuesday. However, the currency exchange rate retreated from the high level of 1.1322, and it has retreated back to the monthly R1 at 1.1263 by 5:00 GMT on Wednesday, against which the rate is most likely to rebound. Afterwards, the pair would move to the second weekly resistance at 1.1302 and test the 1.13 mark once again. In addition, a surge is also possible due to the fact that the upper Bollinger band has moved higher to 1.1318, compared to yesterday's 1.1299.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to be bearish, as 61% of open positions were short on Wednesday morning. In the meantime, pending commands are 57% bearish.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD risks falling back under 1.30

"The pound is likely to keep slipping towards $1.2798 as the U.K. economy faces the risk of a downturn and amid the prospect of further easing by the BOE."
- Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The fundamentals turned in Sterling's favour on Tuesday and along with the strong support cluster around 1.2850 caused a substantial rally in the Cable. Consequently, the Pound almost completely erased all previous week's losses, having closed just on top of the weekly R1. However, technical studies keep giving bearish signals, suggesting that a correction after such a surge is likely to take place. A decline then would cause the GBP/USD pair to fall back under 1.30. On the other hand, a lot depends on the FOMC Minutes today, where a dovish statement could spark more Pound-buying, with the ceiling seen as far as 1.3170, where the weekly R2 coincides with the monthly PP.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish sentiment worsened over the day, as 58% of all open positions are now long. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders slid from 57 to 54%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY seen descending further

"As long as markets continue to bet against a Fed rate hike anytime soon and the yen continues to ignore Japan's efforts to weaken it, dollar/yen could have significantly further to fall."
- Forex.com (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook
With the return of risk-off sentiment and relatively poor US inflation data yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair was close to touching the 99.50 level, but closed at 100.30. Risks of the Buck slumping below the 100.00 psychological level are even greater, while technical indicators support this outlook with their bearish signs. The nearest level to support the pair is located at 99.78, namely the weekly S2. In case bears do take over the market, the decline is then likely to last until the 99.00 mark is reached, which is reinforced by the monthly S1, the weekly S3 and the Bollinger band.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish traders' sentiment remains unchanged at 64%, but the number of orders to purchase the US Dollar lost 17 percentage points. The orders now take up 66% of the market.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD slows down the surge on Thursday

"The EUR/USD is consolidating with the formation of an inside bar after advancing as much as 145 pips in yesterday's trading."
– Walker England (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency is slowing down its appreciation against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate reached the second weekly resistance line at 1.1302. However, the rate has not been stopped by the resistance, as the pair had not only been more volatile to the upside up to the level of 1.1329, but also it traded at 1.1305 by 5:00 GMT. Due to this and other factors, it is most likely that the rate will move north to the second monthly resistance at 1.1353 during this week. However, it is possible, that it retreats to the monthly R1 at 1.1263 before the surge continues.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders have not changed their opinion on the pair, as 61% of open positions remained short on Thursday morning. In the meantime, pending orders are 56% bearish.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD in limbo between 1.30 and 1.31

"These minutes don't support an interest rate increase sooner rather than later, and therefore I think the dollar is going to continue to falter a bit."
- EverBank World Markets (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
Wednesday ended with the Pound remaining relatively unchanged against the US Dollar. The inability to close significantly lower creates a possibility for the Cable to post more gains this week if sufficient impetus is provided. The GBP/USD currency pair has the potential to climb over the 1.31 major level today, as supply there, represented by the 20-day SMA, is unlikely to prevent the exchange rate from edging higher. On the other hand, technical indicators keep giving bearish signals, suggesting that a decline back under 1.30 could take place, with the weekly PP at 1.2975 acting as the nearest support.

Traders' Sentiment
The portion of bulls slightly increased over the day, having risen from 58 to 59%. At the same time, the number of orders to sell the Sterling inched up from 46 to 61%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

"I don't think investors are buying the yen aggressively. To put it the other way around, there is no reason to buy the dollar and others in a positive manner."
- Marito Ueda, FX Prime (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook
The FOMC Minutes somewhat disappointed yesterday, causing the USD/JPY currency pair to retreat from its intraday highs. Ultimately, the pair remained flat on Wednesday, as demand at the 100.00 psychological level was sufficient to keep the exchange rate elevated. However, the Buck remains under the risk of falling below the 100.00 mark, with technical studies supporting this scenario. The weekly S2, located at 99.78, is the closest support, while a much stronger cluster rests around 98.75.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment barely changed over the past 24 hours, as 65% of all open positions are now long (previously 64%). There are significantly less orders to acquire the Greenback, as their share dropped from 66 to 52% over the day.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reaches 1.1350 mark on Thursday

"The euro strengthened 0.6% to $1.1354, climbing for a fifth day. The gains came even as meeting minutes showed the ECB "widely" agreed that their immediate reaction to the outcome of the U.K.'s referendum shouldn't fuel excessive speculation about more stimulus." – based on Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency ended Thursday's trading session at the second monthly resistance at 1.1353 against the US Dollar, which marked the fifth consecutive session of gains for the Euro. However, on early Friday morning, the currency exchange rate has changed its direction, as the resistance proved that it has enough strength to change the pair's direction. Due to that, the currency rate bounced off the monthly R2 and traded at 1.1335 by 5:15 GMT on Friday, and it is most likely to fall to the weekly R2 at 1.1302, where the rate might find some support.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 62% of open positions are short on Friday morning. In the meantime, pending commands remained unchanged, as 56% of pending orders are to sell.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD to remain at a two-week high

"So the only explanations for the weakness in the dollar aside from the skepticism of forex traders is positioning and the technical condition of the Dollar."
- BK Asset Management (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The Cable managed to post more solid gain on Thursday, being driven by a strong reading of the UK Retail Sales data earlier that day. With no significant drivers present today, the GBP/USD currency pair is expected to undergo a corrective decline, despite having opened right on top of the weekly R2 and the monthly PP support cluster. Technical indicators also support the possibility of the bearish outcome. In this case, the nearest area to limit the losses rests around 1.31 psychological level, also bolstered by the 20-day SMA. A drop lower would imply a retreat from a two-week high, with the weekly R1 at 1.3046 being the next target.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls retreated again, as 56% of traders hold long positions (previously 59%). The portion of buy orders, however, edged up from 39 to 55%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY attempts to regain the bullish momentum

"I don't think investors are buying the yen aggressively. To put it the other way around, there is no reason to buy the dollar and others in a positive manner."
- Marito Ueda, FX Prime (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook
The Japanese Yen continued to outperform the American Dollar, causing the pair to drop below the 100.00 major level, but with the immediate support remaining intact. Earlier today the Buck managed to begin appreciating against the Yen, despite poor risk environment, but succeeding in climbing back above the 100.00 mark, for the time being at least. The nearest resistance rests at 100.55, which could keep the USD/JPY pair at bay and even trigger another sell-off, which is still suggested by the technical indicators. In case bears manage to take over the market, the immediate support at 99.78, namely the weekly S2, risks getting breached, with the target shifting to 99.00.

Traders' Sentiment
Bullish market sentiment returned to its Wednesday's level of 64%, while the share of buy orders declined from 52 to 38%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold retreats on Friday morning

"Gold continues to struggle near the 2011-2012 trendline but dips have been muted. As such, upside acceleration towards 1439 (measured move) is viewed as a distinct possibility sooner rather than later."
– Jamie Saettele (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal did not manage to upkeep its surge on Friday, as the yellow metal bounced off the weekly R1 at 1,351.70 and moved to 1,349.50 by 5:30 GMT. Although, the metal had already found support in the monthly PP at 1.345.31 before 5:30 GMT, and daily aggregate indicators forecast a surge for it during today's trading session. Taking into account those facts, it is most likely, that the metal will soon resume to move northwards.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are slightly bearish on the metal, as 52% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders to buy have increased by 3% and are at 58%, compared to yesterday's 55%.

 

[Anastasia DC]

EUR/USD retreats below 1.13 mark on Monday

"The Euro may be vulnerable to losses after the appearance of a bearish Harami candlestick pattern having advanced to a two-month high against the US Dollar."
– Ilya Spivak (based on Daily FX)

Pair's Outlook
The common European currency began a retreat against the US Dollar on Friday, and the pair continues to move lower on Monday, as by 5:00 GMT it had reached below the newly formed, weekly PP at 1.1281. As the weekly PP's support has been passed, it is most likely that the currency exchange rate will find support in the monthly R1 at 1.1263 and rebound against this level. In addition, the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the pair during today's trading session.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are largely bearish on the pair, as 63% of open positions are short on Monday, which is close to being oversold. In the meantime, pending commands are 57% to sell.