Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 02nd Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - another attempt of break above bearish regression channel

Demand on EURUSD definitely catched the wind. Since a week supply wasn't able to cross 1.0800 level, beside this last two days show constant upward movement. Currently price broke above bearish regression channel in which price moved since December 4.

Attempts like those were already seen several times and every time ended with failure. This time could be the same and price may return inside the channel. Price return to 1.0900 will be a perfect confirmation and dynamic upward movement with new high. Such a movement should lead price to 1.1050 (with stop at 1.0965). However if break above bearish regression channel ends with failure, downward movement will stop at 1.0800.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 03rd Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPUSD - Inside upward channel
After rebound on January from 6-years low, GBPUSD continues upward movement. Since two weeks it moves in bullish regression channel. Before new uptrend impulse occurs, it is likely that price will move to the lower limit of that channel (area 1.4200). Further upward movement should be continued - current rebound didn't reach even a basic Fibonacci 38,2% level (area 1.4520) of previous downward movement.

Nearest important resistance is located at 1.4600, if demand breaks it, next target will be at 1.4850. It should be noted that previous analysis GBPUSD gave 150 pips profit, I wrote: "today price returned above 1.4250 and nearest target for upward movement is 1.4400".

Time-frame H4:

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 03rd Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

NZDCAD - rebound after uptrend line test

NZDCAD looks very interesting. From September to December 2015 price moved in an uptrend. In the end of December correction occurred which continues till today. Downward movement took a shape of ABC simple correction and particular points can be marked already. There isn't perfect equal A = C, but other elements should help with further upward movement.

Rebound occurs at trend line, which begins at August's low. Additionally this level coincides with support. Last three days we saw dynamic rebound thus it is likely that some correction may occur. However in a medium term price should test at least high from December 2015.

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 04th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY - Sharp declines after completed reverse H&S pattern

Such technical price behaviour like last USDJPY movement can't be seen very often. First it formed reverse head and shoulders pattern and BoJ decision was an excuse for upward movement. Target for that movement coincides almost perfectly with reverse H&S potential target (it can be measured by range between the top of the head and neckline). USDJPY after reaching the target begun declines immediately and support at 118.80 didn't stop the price even for a moment.

Currently price should continue previous declines. Nearest support is at 116.70 but even this year's low at 116.10 could be tested. Alternatively if price moves back above 118.80 it will be a more optimistic signal for the bulls.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 04th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPCAD - huge volatility after BoE decision

Today huge volatility occurred at currency pairs with GBP. It was caused by BoE decision on interest rates. That decision was consistent with forecasts which mean interest rates stayed at the same level. There were a hesitance on the market and just after decision GBPCAD sharply fell to the 1.9890 level and as quickly rebounded. That level was three months support. BoE statement was unequivocal from one side rates hike is possible and from the other lowered the forecast for inflation.

Currently there are two important levels: 1.9890 (support) and 2.0350 (resistance). Break below indicated support will lead price to 1.9730 and next 1.9480. However break above resistance 2.0350 will be a good signal for the bulls and lead price to 2.0540 and next 2.0930.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - movement in 1.1500 direction, watch out on today's U.S. nonfarm payrolls

Roaring success of the bulls at EURUSD is in full swing. After broke above bearish regression channel price also broke resistances at 1.1050 and 1.1120. Next resistance is at 1.1350 however it looks like the goal for demand is at 1.1500. That level is the upper limit of big channel in which price moved since 12 months. Only once during last year that level was exceeded for two days.

You have to note that Friday will bring a macroeconomic reading of U.S. nonfarm payrolls. NFP is expected to reach 190K, and any reading more than 150K will be seen as further improvement of the situation on the labor market in the U.S. During this event you have to expect huge volatility at EURUSD. Nearest supports are located at 1.1120, 1.1050.

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPUSD - declines after U.S. nonfarm payrolls readings

After macroeconomic reading of U.S. nonfarm payrolls dollar strengthened. EURUSD and GBPUSD declined, but more interesting situation can be seen at GBPUSD. Nonfarm payrolls grew 151K in January, however that reading is almost 20% worse than the forecast. From the other side the unemployment rate edged down to 4.9% (what is also different from forecasts).

For more than a month price declined and two weeks ago rebound occurred. Current local high coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement of previous downward movement. Last Wednesday bulls broke upper limit of bullish regression channel and today there is an attempt of return to its range. If price stays above 1.4500 first target for falls will be at 1.4400. Next goal for bears will be 1.4200 which is a lower limit of the channel. However if upward movement returns and price stays above 1.4500 nearest resistances will be at 1.4560, 1.4600.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD - technical analysis of popular major

In last Thursday we could spot an attempt to break the 1,1250 area, where at least two Fibonacci levels are located. First one is the 61.8% of 24th August bear move - price didn't really test it, but it was really close. Second resistance is a 100% level from the 100% pattern. Measuring the corrective move from 3rd of December we can draw the resistance line right in the place of reversal. This line was perfectly tested by the price and market reaction was perfect as well.

Today we could spot some bulls price action, but it seems that local resistance at 1.1180 stopped the gains. At this moment bear market seems to be more probable.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/PLN – significant suport + weekly LONG signal

Single currency to Polish zloty moved above 4.3894 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (upward move from December lows) during few last session. Horizontal level had an important role at the end of 2014 – and now acts as the support. Monday’s session brings stronger reflection and move above 4.4300.

Interesting signal and the distribution of significant support/resistance levels can be seen on the higher TF (weekly one). As you can see, the last W1 candle tried to test the strong resistance from December 2014 (now support), however the final closure took place definitely above it. As a result, demand pin bar candle appreciated, which may suggests a desire of upward moves continuation. Candle tested also 23.6% Fibo retracement (uptrend from April 2015 lows).

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 09th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURGBP - highest since a year and test of important resistance

Since a mid-November EURGBP moved in an uptrend. Currently demand has a tough work to do, which is break above resistance at 0.7760. If it succeeds price should gain 250 pips and reach another resistance 0.8030. However if supply is stronger nearest supports will be located at levels: 0.7540, 0.7420.

Wider view, time-frame W1
To see the current strength of the resistance you should take a look at a weekly time-frame. That level was "in game" many times before (years: 2008, 2012, 2014) and made rebounds. Current attempt could be successful, but you shouldn't expect that it will be fast. It is likely that right now we will see a shallow rebound or a side trend below resistance.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 09th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY - new week, new low

There is a black scenario in game at USDJPY and today price reached 14-months low. It have to be noted that such scenario was indicated in the last week's analysis. I wrote: "Currently price should continue previous declines. Nearest support is at 116.70 but even this year's low at 116.10 could be tested".

Demand is weak and support at 116.10 wasn't defended. Nearest supports are at 114.00, 112.30. However it is likely that even support at 109.80 may be tested. Chance for a demand is dynamic rebound and return above 116.10 which is currently unlikely.

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 10th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDCAD - rebound from support near 0.9730

Since the beginning of January AUDCAD moved down. In this particular time support at area 0.9820 - 0.9840 stopped declines. Yesterday this support was broken below and price sharply fell 100 pips reaching 0.9730. Support at 0.9730 is very strong, it can be seen at weekly TF. Price rebounded at indicated level and upward movement continues today.

Currently there is attempt of return above area 0.9820 - 0.9840 and according to the rule of poles changing it is now resistance. If demand breaks above next target for upward movement will be 0.9970. However if supply wins and price falls below 0.9820, nearest target for falls will be at 0.9730.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 10th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Oil brent at support 30.50

Rebound which lasted 10 days is now only a memory and oil returned to downtrend. So far price stayed above 30.00 level however there isn't any optimistic sign for the bulls. It is likely that side trend between 27.30 and 36.10 will be continued. In this area price moved since a month.

If supply breaks below support, nearest target for falls will be 29.30, but a great battle of demand and supply will take place at 27.30. Alternatively if demand defends that support next resistances will be located at levels: 32.30, 33.50, 34.60, 36.10.

Time-frame H1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 11th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - highest since October 2015

During semi-annual congressional testimony Janet Yellen wasn't dovish enough, she said: "The FOMC anticipates that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate".

EURUSD fell only for a moment and tested support 1.1160. But price sharply returned to daily's high and today demand continues upward movement testing 1.1350 level. Nearest resistance is at 1.1380 but it is likely that rebound will occur at 1.1490. Price moves between 1.1490, 1.0520 since more than a year. However if rebound occur faster nearest supports are located at: 1.1160, 1.1100.

Time-frame H1

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 11th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDCAD - bulls are back, but a flag pattern suggests that the falls are not finished

After correction of 50% previous upward movement, at the chart occurred a candle with long bottom shadow. Such price action candles predict rebound. So it happened and for a week upward movement continues. However there is one concern. At time-frame H4 price formed flag pattern in a direction opposite to the previous movement (blue on the chart). Flag pattern like that usually is break below and it is likely that previous downward movement will be continues. Scenario of downward movement may be connected with test of uptrend line (orange on the chart).

Time-frame H4

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

UDJPY - after 9 days of declines there is a hope for a rebound

Previous AUDJPY analysis was very profitable. I indicated flag pattern and direction of breakout. I wrote: 'Flag is a pattern of trend continuation which means that price should break below lower limit of the flag according to a main downtrend'. As you can see breakout occurred and price sharply moved down. After rebound, since mid-January decline continues and yesterday price tested support at 77.60.

Right now rebound should also occur - in last 9 days price declined without one day of stronger break. Yesterday's daily candle with long bottom shadow gives a hope that rebound will start right now. Nearest supports are at 79.60, 77.70, 74.80. Nearest resistances are located at 82.20, 83.60, 84.70, 85.60.

Time- frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURCAD - correction should occur

Macroeconomic data from US caused sharp downward movement at EURCAD. Rebound occurred when price moved above 1.5580 area which is nearest support. US retail sales were better than forecasted. Similar price reaction occurred at EURUSD.

In a longer term EURCAD moved in an uptrend and in mid-January there were correction that reached 50% of previous upward movement. New upward impulse is very dynamic and since last 9 days there was only 1 session of declines. It is likely that currently downward movement should occur but in a long term uptrend should continue. Nearest resistance is at 1.5950, supports are located at: 1.5580, 1.5430, 1.5240.

Time-frame M30

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 13th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - movement towards 1.1160 support

Supply at EURUSD took over control after Thursday's test of resistance at 1.1380. First support at 1.1320 wasn't able to stop decline and today for the first minutes of trading downward movement is continuing. Nearest support is at 1.1160 but if it breaks stronger support will be located at 1.1100. One of that levels should make rebound.

There will be not many macroeconomic data in next few days that could increase volatility at EURUSD. Next important data will be protocols of last FOMC meeting. So-called FOMC minutes will be published on Thursday

Time-frame M30

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY - sharp return above 114.00

In previous analysis from February 9 I indicated weakness of the bulls at USDJPY and possibility of price movement towards 109.80. I wrote: 'Demand is weak and support at 116.10 wasn't defended. Nearest supports are at 114.00, 112.30. However it is likely that even support at 109.80 may be tested'.

Indeed price fell below support 112.30, however rebound occurred earlier at 111.00. Demand's reaction was strong and price returned sharply above 112.30. Today price is continuing upward movement and resistance at 114.00 was broken. Target for current upward movement is at 116.10. Return above 116.10 will be a bullish signal, but rebound from that level will give better chance for the bears.

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 16th Feb, 2016
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDNZD - side trend, since more than two months

In Friday 1.0560 are caused price rebound. It took place third time during six months period. Currently 1.0930 level should be tested. Since more than two months AUDNZD moves in side trend between above mentioned levels. Another attempts of breakout finished faster with rebound.

This is interesting trading opportunity. Right now we should watch 1.0930 level and look for trend reversal signals, when price will reach there. Another closer located highs and lows indicate that AUDNZD forms triangle pattern. It has to be noted that breaking one of that levels will begin new trend impulse accordant with direction of the breakout.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.