Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPJPY - it is time for a rebound

Last week analysis brought a good profit. When price was at 178.22 I pointed that falls will continue in analysis entitled "next break 175.80". Currently price reached the support in area 175.50 where exchange rate reacted many times between December 2013 and April 2015. It is likely that rebound will occur at current level and further price direction will depend on that rebound strength. However if GBPJPY breaks below this support it will be a confirmation of deeper correction or even a trend reversal. Strong rebound from this support with new local high will be a signal that correction is over and price will return to uptrend.

Wider view.
Since 2012 GBPJPY moved in an uptrend but last six months was highly problematic for demand and achieving new highs. Last time new high was approached in June 21 2015 at 195.87 level and after that price moved with lower highs and lower lows. It is a confirmation that correction is in progress or even a trend reversal.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - consolidation breakout

Since December 4 EURUSD moved in consolidation between levels: 1.0800 - 1.1040 (blue lines at the chart). Today price broke below lower consolidation band and immediately price broke two nearest supports: 1.0780, 1.0730. Direction of movement is in line with fundamentals which means a politics of both central banks. Dovish EBC and hawkish FED should cause euro depreciation against the dollar what could be seen on today's chart.

Next supports are located at levels: 1.0680, 1.0630, 1.0560. Currently it is likely that price will return and test lower limit of consolidation at 1.0800. If demand moves back inside the consolidation, then breakout will be a fake one. However if this scenario won't succeed and price will rebound, then the lows from 2015 should be tested.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 06th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURJPY - approached important support

The beginning of the year for EURJPY brought 3 sessions of consecutive declines. Price is at lowest level since April 2015. EURJPY moved the entire 2015 inside consolidation without clear trend between 126.10 - 140.50 levels. Rebound may occur in a moment. Key level which should bring demand reaction is located near 126.50. However if rebound won't succeed and declines will continue (what is currently less likely) break below 126.00 level will confirm that EURJPY is in a downtrend.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 06th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDTRY - return above 3.0000

Since more than 5 years USDTRY moves in an uptrend. In September 2015 price reached 3.0000 level and after creation of the double top pattern correction occured. Correction lasted one month and took a form of ABCD simple correction with AB=CD dependence. Since bottom in November 2 price moved upward with higher highs and higher lows.

Today USDTRY broke above key level 3.0000. Next resistances are located at 3.0280, 3.0610. If price will break above last top at 3.0750 it will be a signal for a new uptrend impulse. Alternatively if current breakout won't succeed and price will fall below 3.0000 nearest supports are located at levels: 2.9850, 2.9400, 2.9050.

Time-frame H4

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 07th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPUSD - at key support

Hawkish FED strengthened dollar at all of the fronts. Yesterday FOMC minutes were published and they confirmed FED's members unanimity in the matter of rates hike. There is 45% chance of next rate hike during March's meeting.

Due to this fact, GBPUSD fell to last year's low. If attempt of support breakout at 1.4600 succeeds next support will be find near 1.4250 - 1.4400 area (2010 low). If that level also breaks, historical low from 2009 at region 1.3500 will become a next support. However if price rebounds from current support, nearest resistances are located at levels: 1.4740, 1.4820, 1.4940.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 07th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY - movement to 116.00

USDJPY continues downward movement which lasts since early December with a short break. It should be noted, price is oversold and since two weeks there wasn't any correction. However today's low could be deepened. Yesterday's support at 118.70 was broken and that fact showed some consequences today. Strong downtrend candle broke below 4-months low and currently 2015 low (area 116.00) is a bearish target.

It is likely that weak correction may appear and 118.70 will be tested. If there will be a rebound at 118.70 level price will fall to 116.00. Behavior of price at this level will be important for further direction of USDJPY movement. Breakout of one year's low will give a strong sell signal and a trend reversal in the long term.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDCAD - support at 0.9870 paused correction

Previous analysis was extremely precise. I pointed that currency is overbought and correction may occur in a moment, I wrote: "Correction may begin at every moment, however it is likely that current movement will lead price to supports at 1.0130 or 1.0200. If one of that levels will cause rebound, nearest support is at 0.9970 level". So it happened and price shadow (wick of the candle) exceeded firstly pointed level about 37 pips and dynamic correction occured.

AUDCAD doesn't like movement in consolidation and by the fact, that upward move which lasted since the beginning of November was almost vertical now correction could be also dynamic. First support at 0.9970 was broken below and a pause in declines caused second support test at 0.9870. If there will be a breakout of that level next stronger support is located in 0.9730 area (conicided with Fibonacci 50%). At one of that supports rebound should occur and it shows current strength of demand.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURGBP - triple top pattern

Today's nonfarm payrolls data were extremely calm, despite that the forecasts were completely different. Unemployment in USA remained at 5% and US economy created almost 50% more work places in nonfarm sector than it was forecasted (292k vs 200k). EURGBP chart looks really interesting, where price (since last year's April) for the third time reached resistance 0.7480 and rebounded again.

Right now we can see triple top pattern, which is a declines signal. This time demand should try another attack at this resistance and it can even reach again to yesterday's high. At time-frame H4 the possibility of rebound is confirmed by yesterday's candle with a long upper shadow. Nearest supports: 0.7420, 0.7320, 0.7250. Key resistance at 0.7480 level.

Time-frame D1

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 11th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURJPY - support reacted, it is time for a bigger rebound

Last week analysis was very profitable. In analysis entitled: "EURJPY - approached important support", I wrote: "Rebound may occur in a moment. Key level which should bring demand reaction is located near 126.50". In fact rebound occurred 50 pips above that level and signal to take the long position was OUTSIDE BAR price action pattern. It is visible at chart H4 (pointed by arrow). Low of that pattern was deepened by long shadow (it required wider SL or renewed long position), after which upward movement continued to first resistance at 128.80.

If this resistance breaks next target for bulls will be located at 129.80, 130.75. However if declines shows once again, supply will want to test area 126.50 and there should be stable rebound.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 11th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDUSD - dynamic rebound from the support
Since the beginning of this year AUDUSD falls and broke few supports. For 6 sessions there was lower highs and lower lows and this downtrend stopped today, when first dynamic rebound occurred. Rebound was caused by support which was created by September's lows at area 0.6920. Temporarily rebound was stopped by 0.7020 level, but after its breakout next resistances are at levels: 0.7080, 0.7160, 0.7280.

Wider view, time-frame W1
Since 2011 AUDUSD moves in downtrend. However last 5 months is a side movement between levels: 0.6920 - 0.7370. It is more likely that in long time trend will be continued and price will fall below 0.6920. While price is between pointed levels it is a side trend and traders should trade from band to band.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURUSD - movement in downward channel suggest the direction of breakout

Since December 4 EURUSD moves in downward channel between 1.0720 - 1.1050. Fundamentally dollar should strengthened and EURUSD continue its declines but it doesn't. It indicates, that any dovish information from FED could induce upward movement at least to 1.1050. Similar channels formed several times in the last few months (as you can see in the chart D1) and every time breakout was in direction opposed to the channel slope. If price breaks the channel, further movement will be also in consolidation but in a bigger one, between levels: 1.0500 - 1.1500.

Time-frame H4

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPUSD - lowest since mid-2010

Currently we have very clear situation at GBPUSD. After support breakout (1.4600) price tested it from the bottom. Reversing the polarity was confirmed and last support has become new resistance which is clearly visible in the chart below. Demand couldn't go back even for a moment above 1.4600. Further target for falls could be one of supports from 2010: 1.4400 or 1.4250. If price falls below them it is almost certain that price will reach below 1.4000 level.

Attention should be paid to the GBPUSD nearest Thursday when the central bank of England publish its decision on interest rates. A likely scenario is a test of one of the indicated levels and rebound on Thursday's BoE decision.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 13th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

GBPAUD - movement in downtrend channel

Since last year's August GBPAUD moves in a downtrend. Previous wave of declines finished at 2.0170 (almost 7-months low) and rebound occurred. Price was gaining until Monday when after reaching a downtrend line (coinciding with Fibonacci 78,6%) new wave of falls occurred. Today downward movement is continued, but declines are paused by support 2.0470. There is no sign that this support should stop declines. It is very likely that after its breakout, lower limit of downward channel will be tested. Currently that lower limit coincides with strong support 1.9900. However if bulls strengthens, the trend reversal momentum will try to close the price above 2.1000 level. This would mean break above: downtrend line (time-frame H4) and downtrend channel (time-frame D1).

Time-frame H4

Time-frame D1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 13th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

CADJPY - closer to stronger support zone

Analysis from December 17 was very profitable. However declines without any correction reached much lower than I expected (black symbols at H4 chart). I wrote: "Current situation looks very bad for demand side. Upward movement which we saw this week was just a re-test of new resistance. It is likely that declines will become a further direction", "The nearest support can be found at: 87.40, and another in the area 85.00".
Downtrend is so strong that support at 85.00 didn't stop declines even for one day. Currently lower limit of downtrend channel was tested and weak rebound may occur, however it shouldn't reach higher than 84.70. Strong support is near 81.00 area and there should be a rebound. Price many times reacted at this level between 2010 – 2012. However if bulls strengthen first break above 85.00 level will be a first signal for a trend reversal.

Time-frame H4

Time-frame W1

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 14th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

NZDCAD - it's not the end of correction

After upward movement lasting 2 months NZDCAD reached resistance, which since 2014 has been causing rebounds. That's also happened now. For the third time area 0.9550 stopped bulls charge. Falls that occurred doesn't reach even to Fibonacci 38,2% which could mean that correction isn't finish.

Bulls could try to return to uptrend as evidenced by broken intraday downtrend line (orange line at the chart). However it shouldn't be succeeded (December's high shouldn't be threatened). If bulls fail, price will come back to correction. When bears return and support at 0.9240 will be broken, it is likely that next target will be found near 0.9000 - 0.9050. At this area supports coincide with Fibonacci levels. Nearest resistances: 0.9380, 0.9470, 0.9550. Nearest supports: 0.9240, 0.9110, area 0.9000-0.9050.

Time-frame H4

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 14th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EURJPY - failed attempt of break above triangle upper limit

In January there is a side trend at EURJPY and price formed triangle pattern. Today bulls tried to broke above upper limit of the triangle but they failed. Successful breakout could be very dynamic. If it is up, upward movement will be limited to 133.00. However if it is down, it will give a strong long-term trend reversal signal.

Wider view, time-frame D1
Since December 2014 EURJPY moves in a downtrend, in last week price reached 8 months low. Currently price is near support, but it is very hard to see any good signals looking at the chart. Break below support at 126.90 could lead price to 120.50 and in a long term will look like trend reversal (because right now falls still could be seen as a correction in uptrend). Alternatively if rebound occurs the main challenge for the bulls will be break above resistance at 133.00, where right now is a downtrend line.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUDCAD - one week of correction and return to uptrend

Bulls strikes back on AUDCAD. New year started with falls after almost vertical upward movement which lasted in November and December last year. After two months of upward movement without any correction supply expected deeper correction. I assumed that should make rebound was 0.9740 where support coincides with Fibonacci 50%.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

AUD/USD deepens 6-year lows

Australian to US dollar fell during Friday’s trading below wide consolidation 0.7383-0.6900 drawn from the middle of the last year. As a result, long-term, more than 6-ytear lows on the Aussie has been deepened to 0.6862. If the price closes below that level, then traders will have an opportunity to look for supply signals.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 18th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

CHFPLN - breakout the upper limit of consolidation after S&P downgrade

On Friday rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut the Poland's rating and warned of a further cut. S&P in note pointed at new government's actions without reference to the Poland's economy. Despite that other agencies does not opt to identical moves polish zloty weakened.

Currency pair CHFPLN is very popular because a thousands of Poles have debt in CHF. At chart we see side trend since February 2015. CHFPLN moved between levels 3.8000 - 4.0600 by the last Friday when demand broke above 4.0600 level. Currently the return movement should occur and price should decline to 4.0600. If price rebound from that level will be a new uptrend impuls. However if supply will be stronger and price will return below 4.0600 Friday's breakout will be a false and price will moves toward the lower limit of the channel.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 19th Jan, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USDJPY an opportunity for rebound - double bottom pattern at support

After Friday's selloff current week started with a rebound at USDJPY. Area of 116.50 was defended by demand because further declines (and especially support breakout at 116.00) will worsen technical situation on the chart. Changes in long-term trend to a downtrend will become a fact. Currently upward movement should reach 118.30 - 118.80. This area is important for further moves direction. If demand breaks it and upward movement continues next target will be at 120.60.

Time-frame H4

I would like to remind previous analysis USDJPY from January 7, which was very profitable. I wrote: "It is likely that weak correction may appear and 118.70 will be tested. If there will be a rebound at 118.70 level price will fall to 116.00".

Time-frame M30

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.