Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 11, 2016

We see a weakening Australian dollar against the USD as recently released data proved that the first quarter has been sluggish despite the overvalued currency.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the soft currency as board members have been saying that they prefer a lower exchange, although they did not cut interest rates in the latest policy meeting.

Australia’s home loans released on Monday showed a 1.5 percent rise against a 4.4 percent drop in February, failing to reach the 2.0 percent projection.

China, Australia’s largest partner in trade, also helped AUD’s price decline with an unchanged year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3 percent in March, missing a forecasted 2.5 percent. Wholesale prices contracted for the 49th consecutive month by 0.4 percent.

Investors will have a lot to look forward to as Australia’s consumer sentiment index will be published on Tuesday and data on the country’s labor market will be released on Wednesday. RBA’s first financial stability review will come on Thursday.

The AUD is trading 0.7535 against the USD. The first support occurred at 0.7527 and 0.7489 subsequently. The first resistance occurred at 0.7608 and 0.7649 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 12, 2016

The Aussie dollar rallied from a slight dip during earlier session and is now at 0.7617 against the US dollar. The improvement was due to the National Australia Bank’s solid business confidence report.

NAB revealed that the business confidence index grew to +6 in March from February's +3. According to survey results of more than 400 companies, business conditions increased to +12, the country’s best since 2008.

The services industry was the strongest, followed by manufacturing, construction, and transport. The mining sector was still the weakest.

Meanwhile, the USD still failed to recover after Fed’s decision to take a more cautious approach in tightening monetary policy.

AUD is now testing 0.77 levels. The upcoming release of Australia’s unemployment rate this week and China’s dataflow is expected to sway investor sentiment next.

The first support is at 0.7562 and 0.7524 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7666 and 0.7704 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 12, 2016

The NZD/USD extended gains to an intraday high of 0.6885 assisted by a soft USD and a pickup in global commodity prices.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed that the number of houses sold in March saw an 8.2 percent year-on-year increase, breaking the record set in March 2007. Property prices also grew by 4.2 percent year-on-year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been keeping a watchful eye on the real estate market amidst worries that lenders will be in trouble once the gains subside.

Apart from this, the bird is on a quiet flight until the release of the Food Price Index later today which will give a hint on the inflation rate.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 13, 2016

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment slid in April for the second consecutive month to 95.1 percent from March’s 99.1 percent. A level below 100 shows that pessimists outnumber the optimists for the short-term and long-term outlooks.

The consumers’ bias toward economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years were reduced by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Family finances compared to one year ago dropped by 3.8 percent, while family finances over the next 12 months waned by 6.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the unemployment expectations index softened by 1.8 percent, which means that consumer confidence on low unemployment rate is high.

The disappointing and a bit surprising figures squashed hopes that the public’s confidence will follow a considerably optimistic trend because of the previous four consecutive releases above 100.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that consumers are probably seeing the strong Australian dollar as detrimental for future growth. The media and RBA officials have openly said that the AUD may be overvalued.

The low consumer sentiment is offset by China’s hefty trade data which sent the AUD to bullish territory. After a 25.4 percent fall in March 2015, Chinese exports grew by an immense 11.5 percent, surpassing the forecasted 2.5 percent by leaps and bounds. However, it is important to note that the measured period included the Lunar New Year, a considerably lavish celebration by the Chinese.

Chinese imports contracted by 7.6 percent, positively missing the projected 10.2 percent decrease. This leaves the country’s trade balance at $29.86 billion, slimmer than the estimated $34.95 billion.

Mixed statements from Fed officials on Tuesday injected volatility into the US currency as Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that he is backing rate hikes this year due to inflation’s fast pace. Meanwhile, Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan said that an interest rate in April does not bode well for the weak economic growth.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2016 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percent, the third consecutive cuts it made since July last year. IMF estimated the US economy to grow by only 2.4 percent this year, lower than January’s 2.6 percent projection.

The AUD has broken into 77 cents in earlier session, but is now back to 0.7670.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 13, 2016

The Euro was clipped during Wednesday’s session after the International Monetary Fund commented, for the first time, about the enormous damage of the United Kingdom’s possible exit from the European Union.

Trading at a narrow range of 1.1342 to 1.1393, the Euro continues to drop against a slightly stronger USD which was lifted by higher crude oil prices. The US will release its retail sales and crude oil data later today.

The first support is at 1.1306 and 1.1249 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1426 and 1.1483 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position and the price is decreasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 14, 2016

There were two reasons which caused the yen to put under pressure. Firstly, it was because it cannot withstand the development of Nikkei and the last thing is, its fall is an aftermath of the statement of Japanese Ministry which regards to the probable action launching that is intended to restrict the inflation of the national currency.

The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 14, 2016

Upbeat labor data failed to lift the AUD above 76 cents against the USD. The Australian dollar opened at 0.7654 and hit a day low of 0.7619 in later session.

The first support is at 0.7602 and 0.7563 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7685 and 0.7724 subsequently.

The dip comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed positive employment figures, most of it surpassing projections. The unemployment rate in March was at 5.7 percent, 0.1 percent lower than February’s 5.8 percent. Analysts expected it to increase to 5.9 percent in March.

This is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2013. According to employment minister Michaelia Cash, the number of working people increased 2.2 percent, while the unemployed fell by 4.6 percent in the past 12 months. Furthermore, 26,100 jobs were also added, topping an estimated 20,000 additional jobs.

The report also showed that people scored more part-time jobs as it increased by 34,900, a 10-month high, while full-time jobs dwindled by 8,800. Participation rate rose by 0.9 percent.

However, investor sentiment was unfazed as more sold their AUD for a slowly recovering greenback despite US retail sales in the red. The US inflation report will be published later today.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is decreasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 15, 2016

The repercussions of three days imposing increase of the pound/dollar was it has initiated rectification. The Bank of England has announced its minutes and the interest rate decision wherein the rate was kept at the same level. The unpredictability of the Brexit caused the currency to remain under pressure.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an ascending movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 18, 2016

The bird reached a high of 0.6939 in early trading after the Statistics New Zealand released the consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter of the year on Sunday.

The CPI was on the upside at an increase of 0.2 percent as it surpassed analysts’ forecast of 0.1 percent, recovering from 0.5 percent fall in the last quarter of 2015. The index grew by 0.4 percent from the same period last year, which only rose by 0.1 percent.

Cigarettes and tobacco had the biggest contribution as prices surged by 9.4 percent, while oil prices dropped by 7.7 percent. The upbeat CPI will most likely relieve some pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to not rush the next rate cut in April.

Although the kiwi dollar has recovered its losses during the weekend, its gains against the USD are still inconsistent as we saw it hit an intraday low of 0.6883. The pair is now trading at a wide range of 0.6849 to 0.6940.

The first support is at 0.6881 and 0.6847 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6968 and 0.7003. The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2016

In the middle of risk aversion in the stock markets, the dollar came low. While the attention in the safe assets heightened amidst the cheap oil prices. The fall of the oil prices was due to the negative outcome of the oil exporter's meeting in Doha. The dollar have gone under pressure caused by the poor US data which is low than expected. The UDS Industrial Production decreased by 0.6% contrary to the expected 0.1% whilst the Capacity Utilization lessened to 74.8% from 75.4% and lastly, the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April reduced to 89.7 contrary to the reported 92.

Serving as a funding currency, the euro were sustained by the decline of the risk appetite. Also, the attention in the risky assets slacken caused by the slowdown of the Gross Domestic Product increase of China and the poor economic statistics from the US. The primary reasons that cause the dollar to fall were the decrease of economic inflation of China to its bottom-most level and the average negative statistics on the US inflation. The euro/usd pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

A technical rectification to the psychological level of $40 per barrel was caused by the traders that acquired profit and closed their orders in oil contracts. Traditionally, inferior energy prices had a negative effect on the British currency. The oil price heightened and the pound/dollar pair increased by the end of the trades.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley stated on Monday that the US labor market has recuperated firmly and the Central Bank would slowly pursue to make the interest rates remained normal. An Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production were negatively reported in the past week. These also played into the bear's hands in the dollar/yen pair. The dollar/yen pair increased by the end of the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 20, 2016

The probability of a rate hike was lessened by the Bank of England which may cause the pound to stay unstable. The English regulator dwelt the risks for the country economy when Brexit takes place amidst decision-making regarding the interest rates last week. Mark Carney stated on Tuesday that the effect of Brexit would not be sustainable and it would cause a financing of the payment balance more pricey.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 20, 2016

Despite a more positive than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone, the Euro still failed to break through the 1.14 levels although gaining against the dollar.

Economic sentiment, which measures investors’ outlook for the economy, reached 21.5 in April from last month’s 10.6. Analysts predicted only 8.8 this month. The economic sentiment in Germany was released yesterday as well, surging to 11.2 from last month’s 4.3, eclipsing forecast of 8.0.

The Euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.1352 to 1.1375 and is 30 pips shy of reaching 1.14. The support is located at 1.1335 and 1.1235 subsequently, and the resistance is at 1.1420 and 1.1500 subsequently.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi will announce the future of interest rates on Thursday, but it is expected that the bank will retain the current 0.25.

On the other hand, the USD index fell due to housing data revealed to be below projections, hinting a downtrend in the real estate and construction sectors. Building permits issued was down to 1.086 million from 1.177 million, a 7.7 percent fall from the previous month. The number of houses that started construction also slumped to 1.089 million to 1.194 million yoy.

As of time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1368. The MACD indicator is at negative location and the price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 20, 2016

The pair is experiencing a retracement as the USD outperforms the NZD, halting the bird’s third consecutive day of uptrends. The kiwi dollar is trading just eight pips above the 0.70 handle as of time of writing.

Data pointing to the opposite situation was released today. The GlobalDairyTrade(GDT) index rose by 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Whole milk powder, New Zealand’s biggest export goods, grew by 7.5 percent, while skim milk powder added 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the US’ housing data tumbled with only 1.086 building permits issued from 1.777 million in the previous month. Housing starts skidded to 1.089 million from last year’s 1.194 million.

The first support is at 0.6840 and 0.6656 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6926 and 0.7068 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is dropping.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 21, 2016

The GBP/USD strengthened as the pair positively increased earlier despite oil prices gains and the attraction in risky assets. The Brexit rivals count has been decreased. Perhaps, there had been a positive impact on the British people the deterrents of government lately regarding the immense effect of the country exit from the European Union.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 22, 2016

The Eurozone’s interest rate was kept parked at 0 percent, ECB president Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The announcement sent the Euro to the bulls but traders’ reaction quickly dissipated, sending the pair to 1.12 levels.

Draghi dismissed reports that helicopter money will soon enter the picture, generally showing an upbeat look on the economy. He kept doors open for a negative interest rate in the future.

Inflation was at 0 percent last month, largely missing ECB’s target of almost 2 percent. Draghi said that the inflation should rise before 2016 ends.

The ECB president also responded to Germany’s criticisms on the former’s soft monetary policies.

"We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone and not only for Germany alone,” he said.

The market is now waiting for reactions from Fed.

The MACD is currently below its 9-day EMA, reaching an intraday high of 1.1311. The spot rate is 1.1282 at the time of writing and is still declining. The pair is facing an immediate support at 1.129 and 1.1162, subsequently, while immediate resistance is at 1.1341 and 1.1397 subsequently.

The Eurozone’s monthly manufacturing and services PMI are the next stimulus for the pair. Figures will be released later today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 22, 2016

The Aussie dollar is retracing despite high iron prices, and rallying commodity prices and risk sentiment. The AUD slipped to 0.7726 from today’s high of 0.7775 due to a recovering USD and flat oil prices.

Shortly after ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the Eurozone’s interest rate will remain at 0 percent yesterday, the pair reached 0.78 cents, but similar to the EUR/USD, dipped as well.

The pair’s 4-hour MACD shows a bearish divergence, but the long-term weekly MACD is pushing for a bullish convergence. The MACD indicator is in neutral location.

The pair’s first support occurs at 0.7684 and 0.7646 subsequently, while its first resistance is at 0.7787 and 0.7826.

The greenbacks’ side is fairly quiet with no data outflow later today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 25, 2016

Further than what is anticipated, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany increased in the past month. It can be seen in the index that it grew by 51.9 contrary to the 50.7 in the recent month. Nevertheless, experts had expected the growth of index to 51.0.

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending motion. This movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 25, 2016

After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday. Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

The highlight this week is the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 26, 2016

On Monday, the dollar fell contrary to the yen, bidding goodbye to the three weeks of growth. The market was expecting for the Fed and BoJ meeting.

The first support occurs at 110.60 and at 109.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 111.40 and at 112.20 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 26, 2016

The New Zealand dollar recovered when markets opened on Tuesday while the USD index is still weak.

Ahead of the RBNZ’s announcement on monetary policies, the central bank’s shadow board put together by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research urged that interest rate should remain at 2.25 percent, causing the bird to fly a little higher.

The pair broke through yesterday’s resistance of 0.6895, peaking at 0.6897 earlier today. The kiwi dollar is currently testing 0.69 levels and is trading at a 42-pip range.

The initial support is at 0.6848 and 0.6814 subsequently. The immediate resistance is now at 0.6921. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 0.6893 and rising.