Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Daily. After a powerful decline within the impulse [A], we saw a complicated correction , which took form of an atypical triple three. It seems that at the last section the decline within the new trend [C] has already started.

gbpusd1.PNG


H4. The pair has built the downside impulse 1, after which we saw the beginning of the upward correction 2. We cannot rule out the possibility that this wave will take form of a simple bullish Zigzag. As a result, this week we expect the pair to keep rising in line with the approximate trajectory shown at the chart.

gbpusd2.PNG


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riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Daily. The pair keeps moving within the upward corrective wave (4). This wave is taking form of a rather complicated double triple. Currently EUR/USD is forming its final part y. Let’s view the layout at Н4.

eurusd1.PNG


H4. We are probably seeing the development of the small correction (B), after which the market’s growth will continue. The approximate scheme of the potential future move is shown at the chart, though we recommend trading with caution as the market is forming complicated price patterns.

eurusd2.PNG


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riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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Forex trading plan for October 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar was hit by weak US labor market data (primarily, NFP) on Friday. However, technically American currency has managed to hold its ground after the initial selloff. Traders still see that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate this year – earlier than other central banks. The speeches of the Fed’s members due this week and the FOMC minutes due on Thursday should clarify the situation. On Monday, ISM non-manufacturing PMI also declined more than expected.

EUR/USD once again attempted to overcome the resistance line connecting August and September highs, but met resistance in the 1.1290 area. Support is in the 1.1210/00 zone, at 1.1165 and 1.1100. Data of medium and minor importance released in the euro area were mostly negative. Meetings of the European finance ministers will continue on Tuesday. Mario Drahi will speak at 17:00 GMT. The breakthrough to the upside is unlikely ahead of this speech. Further resistance is at 1.1330 and 1.1460.

GBP/USD was rejected down as it tried to approach 1.5250. British services PMI came at the lowest level since 2013. Below 1.5160 it should revisit support in the 1.5100 region. Above 1.5250 the next obstacle lies at 1.5325 (200-day MA) which will provide rather strong resistance. Fundamentally, it will be difficult for the cable to push much higher as the expectation if the Bank of England’s rate hike will be likely pushed back.

USD/JPY keeps moving within sideways trend between 121.00/30 and 119.00/118.50. The fact that US dollar managed to recover quickly enough after the release of poor NFP figures strengthens 118.50 support. Now it is more a rectangle than a triangle. We expect the pair to stay put in this corridor at least until the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Wednesday.

AUD/USD was capped by resistance at 0.7110 ahead of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. The RBA is unlikely to ease policy. On the upside Aussie has potential to strengthen to the top of the triangle at 0.7200 (23.6% Fibo of the May-September decline). On the downside support is at 0.7025, 0.7000 and 0.6950.

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riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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NZD/CAD: buy target – 0.8700
7 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

  • NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.8600
  • Next buy target - 0.8700
NZD/CAD today reached the round resistance level 0.8600 – which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke through the resistance trendline from the start of April – which accelerated the active minor corrective wave 2 - which started earlier, when the price reversed up from the pivotal support level 0.8300 (as you can see from the daily NZD/CAD chart below).

If NZD/CAD breaks above the resistance level 0.8700 – the price can then rise to the next buy target at the resistance level (which reversed the pair multiple times in July and August).

NZDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-07%200935%20AM%20(1%20day).png


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riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.2720
7 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov
  • GBP/NZD reached sell target 2.3350
  • Next sell target - 2.2720
GBP/NZD continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the support level 2.3350, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level (which earlier reversed the price twice in August) intensified the bearish pressure on GBP/NZD – accelerating the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from September.

GBP/NZD is expected to fall further inside the active waves 5 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.2720 (previous monthly low from July and the forecast price for the completion of active wave (C)).

GBPNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-07%200932%20AM%20(1%20day).png


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riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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US Dollar: forecast for October 12-18

Kira Iukhtenko

The Fed’s rate hike timing remains the most important topic for the currency traders. FOMC meeting minutes released last week disappointed. The members discussed the increased economic risks, not the need for a rate hike. Combination of the “dovish” minutes with the weak September labor market data killed the demand for the US currency. Chances for a rate hike this year are gradually declining.

On the new week, on Wednesday, we will watch September retail sales figures. According to the forecasts, data could render temporarily support for the US currency. However, the rally is unlikely to last long: CPI on Thursday is expected to show price growth slowdown.

What’s more, US companies are to release Q3 earnings on October 8-22. Data will give a clue to the US economic activity and set a new trend for risk sentiment.

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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 12-18

By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week turned out to be positive for the euro. Despite the weak production data from Germany and the dovish tone of September ECB meeting minutes, the euro held its ground and managed to rise above the August-September resistance line and test levels above 1.13.

US dollar didn’t have much strength over the euro, as the data from the United States weren’t very bright either, plus the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes indicated that American central bank is concerned about the weak global economic growth and is not in a hurry to raise the interest rate. Weak NFP released a weak earlier also contributed to the lower expectations of the Fed’s rate hike.

Next week there won’t be a lot of news from the euro area. Pay attention to Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and the region’s final September inflation figures on Friday. US economic calendar is more filled with important events like the publication of retail sales data on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday.

In addition, beware of Chinese trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday: for now the single currency keeps strengthening on lower figures of China.

As a result, the balance of risks for EUR/USD in the near-term is to the upside. Initial resistance is at 1.1350 (the top of the short-term rising channel) and a fix above this level will open the way to 1.1400 and 1.1460 (September high/resistance since May 2014). The area of 1.1460/1.1500 will likely limit the upside of EUR/USD ahead of the ECB’s meeting on October 22 as the European Central Bank doesn’t want higher euro and can make some announcements about the additional quantitative easing (QE) which will hit the single currency. Support is at 1.1250 and 1.1170.

EURUSDDaily.png


Daily EUR/USD

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riki143

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Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 12-18

By Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY has spent another week trading sideways. This time the range has narrowed to 120.60/119.60.

The pair lacks drivers to move out of the current corridor. The upside is limited as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t announce additional monetary stimulus at its October 7thmeeting, so yen didn’t weaken. Moreover, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting confirmed the central bank’s concerns about the global economic slowdown and the fact it is in no rush to raise interest rates. At the same time, the downside is also limited, because many investors still believe that the BOJ will ease policy further at its October 30th meeting. In addition, despite the weak September nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the expectations of the Fed rate hike this year are still alive.

These are the factors, which are keeping USD/JPY in range. A breakthrough will come only if dollar/yen closes above 121.50 or below 118.50. In our view, the possibility of a breakthrough next week isn’t very high. First of all, Japanese economic calendar looks rather empty. The most important event will be the release of the BOJ meeting minutes on Tuesday, but we don’t think that it will be a market mover. The US will publish several important pieces of data from Wednesday to Friday. These releases can push USD/JPY to the edges of the range, but unless we get some really big surprises they won’t change the market’s overall view on the Fed.

USDJPYDaily.png


Daily USD/JPY

One thing we should mention, however, that USD/JPY still correlates with the market’s risk sentiment. Risk sentiment will be affected by Chinese economic statistics – trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. As few expect robust figures from China, growth in USD/JPY will likely be limited ahead of these releases. Also note that both in the United States and in Japan there will be bank holidays on Monday, so USD/JPY can make volatile moves on relatively small events like the speeches of the FOMC officials.

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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for October 12-18

Kira Iukhtenko

UK currency jumped by almost 300 pips since early October. The major reason is the weakness of the US currency and technical conditions. The cable reached our target of 1.5330. However, bearish BOE comments on Thursday paused the rally.

Cable is trading in a medium-term bearish channel formed in June. Fix above 1.5330 will open the way to our next targets at 1.5500 and 1.5580. In the current volatile market conditions, our targets could be hit in the coming days. Break above 1.5500 will confirm the trend reversal.

On Tuesday, we’ll be watching the UK inflation figures. It is expected to stay around zero. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching the labor market figures. UK employment has been showing positive dynamics as of late.

GBPUSDDaily.png

Chart 1. GBP/USD Daily

GBPUSDH4.png

Chart 2. GBP/USD H4

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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. In line with the forecast, the formation of the downward impulse wave A was completed. At the final part, we see the beginning of correction.

audusd1.PNG


H4. As expected, we saw a powerful movement within the [c]. The pair will likely continue rising at the new week. We don’t recommend to go short for now as the pair may be going higher and higher.

audusd2.PNG


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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Weekly. The market keeps forming the multiyear uptrend. The pair is currently forming corrective wave (IV), let us review its inner structure.

usdjpy1.PNG


H4. At the new week, we expect formation of the final part of the converging horizontal triangle [iv], after which we’ll see collapse of price or its slow decline. The approximate scheme of the upcoming move is shown on the chart.

usdjpy2.PNG


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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. After finishing the bullish correction wave , which took form of a triple three, we saw the beginning of a new downtrend [C]. In the coming weeks the pair will likely decline.

gbpusd1.PNG


H4. The final part of the upside Zigzag 2 is ending. At the beginning of the week this wave will be over, and we will see a decline in the impulse wave 3.

gbpusd2.PNG


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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. The market keeps moving within the final part of a complicated corrective wave (4). The pair has to form the final part – коррекцию [Z] of y of (4).
eurusd1.PNG


H4. It seems that the wave [X] took form of the converging horizontal triangle. After this triangle was formed, the bulls have immediately started to push the prices up. The uptrend will likely continue at the new week.
eurusd2.PNG


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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4735, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4765 (revised)

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

GBP/JPY:Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

NZD/USD:Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

USD/CAD:Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

EUR/JPY: BUY at 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

________________________________________________________________
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 13

By Elizabeth Belugina

On Monday there were some hawkish comments from the Fed’s member Lockhart, but with the US banks on holiday and the market being tired of guessing about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike the greenback didn’t react. On Tuesday there won’t be much of the news from America.

The advance of EUR/USD has paused ahead of 1.1400. Germany will release economic sentiment figures at 09:00 GMT (negative forecast). Support is at 1.1350, 1.1318 and 1.1280. Further resistance us at 1.1460.

Pound is approaching resistance levels, but has some room for growth. GBP/USD has once again risen above the 200-day MA at 1.5320. As long as cable is above this point, it has a chance to rise to resistance is at 1.5380 ahead of 1.5435. The UK will release September inflation data at 08:30 GMT. Later in the day, there will be comments from the Bank of England’s officials. Support is at 1.5320 and then at 1.5278 and 1.5250.

USD/JPY was trading in the 120.15 area. In the absence of news from the United States and Japan the pair will be driven by the market’s risk sentiment. Lower than expected Chinese trade balance will bring it to 119.70 and probably to 119.25. Resistance is at 120.90/121.00.

AUD/USD rose to the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-day MA in the 0.7370 area. The pair has almost reached 38.2% Fibo of the decline since May and is overbought. The publication of China’s trade balance data is a risk for a bullish Aussie. Support is at 0.7275 and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7385 and 0.7440.

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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
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Forex Analytics
Yen strengthening
13 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair ended up again next to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud during yesterday's trading session. The bears are increasing pressure and trying to break the cloud downwards, which is why, the Senkou Span A and B lines cannot reinforce its bullish character. More to that, the pair has gotten into the negative zone this morning, which could affect further trading since consolidation under the cloud may mean the end of the bulls' attempts to recover the market.

Technical levels: support – 119.60; resistance – 120.00.

Trade recommendations: off the market.

usdjpyh4-TN.png


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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
Aussie at new heights
13 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair formed a new extremum for the past month yesterday. Due to quite agressive actions of the bulls the currency pair rate has soared under the 74th figure, breaking the last week's high of 0.7340. Bullish sentiment persists in the market, but this morning, we are witnessing the rate's decline into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. Obviously, the market needs a little rest to resume the uptrend. Testing of the Kijun-sen line levels is probable to be followed by the pair's new dash to the 0.7430/40 mark.

Technical levels: support – 0.7270; resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7280; SL — 0.7260; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7430.

AUDUSDH4-TN.png


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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 13

Trade positions of Danske Bank: not so many changed from Monday.

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

EUR/JPY:Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

EUR/CAD: SHORT stopped, possibly sell

________________________________________________________________
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 14
Kira Iukhtenko


Weak China trade data lowered the risk appetite on Tuesday, putting the commodity currencies under pressure. On Wednesday, we will be watching China’s CPI and US retail sales and PPI. These events could deepen the slowdown on the financial markets.

AUD/USD is forming an engulfing candle on the daily chart. A daily close below 0.7270 will confirm the end of the early-October rally. We recommend selling the Australian dollar in this case.

EUR/USD remains sustainable despite the drop of risk appetite. We concede a spike towards the 1.1500 resistance in the coming sessions. After that, the pair could enter a consolidative phase.

GBP/USD was the main driver of the session, falling by more than 100 pips on weak UK CPI. Drop below 1.5330 was a bearish signal. We expect the pair to float to the 1.5160 support in the coming sessions. Recovery above 1.5330 is needed to negate the new bearish move.

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riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 15

By Kira Iukhtenko


US figures on Wednesday pulled the US Dollar down below the 94.50 support. Retail sales and PPI disappointed the markets and lowered expectations for a rate hike in 2015. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US CPI and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. US currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the week.

EUR/USD is testing new highs above the 1.1400 mark. As you may see from the H4 chart, trend resistance has been broken today. We still target the 1.1500 mark and expect the pullback from here. Pay attention to the 55-week SMA at 1.1440 – this is a strong resistance.

GBP/USD chart remains highly volatile. After a drop by 100 points on Tuesday, the pair gained almost 200 points on Wednesday. With the bulls now dominating the market, we now see space for growth to 1.5500. Support is seen at 1.5380 and 1.5330.

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