Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 14, 2016)

USD

The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers in recent trading sessions as market watchers probably booked profits ahead of this week's FOMC statement. There were no reports released from the US economy yesterday while today has the retail sales reports due. Analysts are expecting to see 0.4% gains for both headline and core figures, although the downbeat jobs figures for the same month probably weighed on spending.

EUR

The euro rebounded against some of its counterparts even though there were no reports released from the region. For today, the euro zone employment change and industrial production numbers are due. Employment likely rose 0.2% in the first quarter while industrial production is projected to have rebounded by 0.7%.

GBP

The pound suffered another round of weakness when the latest Brexit surveys showed a lead in favor of those voting to exit the EU. The UK CB leading index stayed flat while today has the CPI readings on tap. Headline CPI could rise to 0.4% while core CPI might climb to 1.3% but traders are likely to pay closer attention to Brexit-related updates.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of dollar weakness and the risk-off flows in the European region. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the PPI on tap. Producer prices might post a 0.1% uptick, slower than the previous 0.3% gain.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion yesterday, as traders seemed to have a stronger preference for the Japanese currency against the dollar. Japan's industrial production figure was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.5%, higher than the forecast at 0.4%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent wins as risk aversion returned to the financial markets. Data from China was mostly weaker than expected, as fixed asset investment and retail sales fell. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index fell from 5 to 3 to show weaker optimism. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 15, 2016)

USD

Dollar pairs were mostly stuck in consolidation yesterday as traders hesitated to take huge positions ahead of the FOMC statement. Headline retail sales rose 0.5% versus the 0.4% consensus while core retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. Import prices posted a stronger than expected 1.4% increase while business inventories were lower. No actual rate changes are expected from the Fed today but a reiteration of their hawkish bias could revive dollar strength.

EUR

The euro was stuck in consolidation to the dollar but was weaker against its other counterparts. Data from the euro zone was actually stronger than expected, with quarterly employment up 0.3% versus the 0.2% consensus and industrial production up by 1.1%. Only the euro zone trade balance is lined up today.

GBP

The pound continued to reel from Brexit updates, as another poll showed a lead in favor of those voting to exit. UK CPI was also weaker than expected, as both headline and core figures didn't budge. The UK jobs report is due today and a 0.1K drop in claimants is eyed while the average earnings index could slide from 2.0% to 1.7%.

CHF

The franc was able to benefit from the risk-off moves in the forex market and the stronger than expected Swiss PPI. Producer prices rose 0.4% versus the projected 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen continued to rake in gains on risk aversion and also got a boost from a positive revision in Japan's industrial production figure. The reading was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.5%, higher than the estimated 0.4% reading. There are no reports due from Japan today, keeping risk sentiment in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as they lost ground to the yen but advanced against the euro and pound. Data from Australia has indicated weakness, as the NAB business confidence index fell from 5 to 3 while the Westpac consumer sentiment reading showed a 1.0% decline. New Zealand's current account balance showed a wider than expected surplus of 1.31 billion NZD. Canadian manufacturing sales and the New Zealand GDT auction are lined up next, along with the New Zealand GDP for Q1.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 16, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to its forex peers when the Fed refrained from hiking interest rates in their latest policy decision. FOMC members also lowered growth forecasts for this year and the next, acknowledging the recent slowdown in employment, but upgraded their inflation forecasts to account for higher commodity prices this year. The Empire State index and PPI beat expectations while industrial production and capacity utilization fell short. US CPI, Philly Fed index, current account balance, and initial jobless claims are up for release today.

EUR

The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to yen strength. Medium-tier data from the euro zone came in line with expectations but the shared currency was driven by Brexit jitters weighing on European markets as a whole. Euro zone final CPI readings are up for release today.

GBP

The pound continued to chalk up losses against its peers as traders priced in the possibility of a Brexit. Jobs data from the UK was actually stronger than expected, as claimants fell 0.4K versus the projected 0.1K drop while the average earnings index held steady at 2.0% instead of falling to the estimated 1.7% figure. The BOE decision is lined up today along with the UK retail sales release.

CHF

The franc continued to take advantage of weakness in the European currencies and was also able to advance against the US dollar. Additional volatility is expected for franc pairs today as the SNB is set to make its policy decision. No actual changes are expected but the Swiss central bank might have some comments on the upcoming EU referendum.

JPY

The yen rallied after the BOJ decided to keep policy unchanged once more. The lower-yielding Japanese currency has also been the beneficiary of safe-haven flows leading up to the EU referendum but additional volatility could be seen during the BOJ press conference later today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but still caved to yen strength. In Australia, hiring was up by 17.9K versus the estimated 14.9K gain while the unemployment rate stood at 5.7% as expected. Dairy prices stayed flat in the latest NZ GDT auction but the country's GDP beat expectations with a 0.7% expansion versus the estimated 0.5% growth figure for Q1.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 17, 2016)

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite appeared to return in the markets. Data from the US came in mixed, with the Philly Fed index showing a stronger than expected return to expansion and the initial jobless claims printing a larger than expected increase. Headline CPI fell to 0.2%, lower than the projected 0.3% figure, while core CPI was unchanged at 0.2% as expected. US building permits and housing starts are due today.

EUR

The euro regained ground against most of its counterparts, except for the British pound. Data from the euro zone came in line with expectations as the final CPI readings for the region were unchanged. The shared currency got a boost from rumors that the EU referendum might be postponed following the shooting of an MP in the UK, which has prompted PM Cameron to suspend Brexit campaigning temporarily. The Italian trade balance and euro zone current account balance are up for release.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally when PM Cameron suspended Brexit campaigning today until the weekend, following the death of MP Jo Cox after she was attacked yesterday. UK retail sales beat expectations with a 0.9% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick while the BOE kept interest rates unchanged as expected. There are no reports due from the UK economy today, leaving the pound sensitive to Brexit updates.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to its peers when European traders speculated that the Brexit vote might be pushed back or that the shooting of UK MP Jo Cox might convince voters to favor staying in the EU. The SNB kept interest rates unchanged as expected while noting that they continue to watch FX levels closely.

JPY

The yen had a strong rally earlier in the day as risk aversion was present but soon gave up its gains when risk-on moves returned. The BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected and refrained from strongly jawboning the yen, although other government authorities have been more vocal. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today, which means that market sentiment could push yen pairs around once more.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of the risk rallies to advance against the dollar and yen. Australia's jobs report beat expectations with a 17.9K gain in hiring versus the projected 14.9K increase. Canada's CPI reports are up for release, with the headline figure likely to post a 0.5% gain and the core figure expected to show a 0.3% increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 20, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to its counterparts and gapped down over the weekend as risk appetite appeared to pick up. Data from the US economy came in line with expectations on Friday and there are no major reports up for release today, keeping sentiment as the main driver of price action.

EUR

The euro recovered against most of its peers on Friday, even though data from the region came in mixed. For now, it appears that sentiment surrounding the EU referendum are driving euro pairs, with the latest polls suggesting that the "stay" camp won't go down without a fight. German PPI data is due today and a 0.4% increase in producer prices is eyed.

GBP

The pound posted some gains on Friday as traders likely booked profits off their shorts to avoid weekend risk. Over the weekend, the Rightmove HPI showed a 0.8% gain in house prices while some polls suggested a larger margin in favor of staying in the EU. There are no reports due from the UK today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the EU referendum on Thursday.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite seemed to improve and traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, which suggests that sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen lost a lot of ground since Friday when intervention rumors started popping up. Japanese government officials have been busy jawboning the currency after its strong rallies last week, likely prompting traders to lighten up their positions. Over the weekend, the Japanese trade balance showed a larger surplus of 0.27T JPY.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls posted gains on Friday thanks to a return in risk-taking. Data from Canada was mixed as the core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.3% gain and the headline figure fell short with a 0.4% uptick versus the estimated 0.5% increase. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a drop in its Westpac consumer sentiment index from 109.6 to 106.0. Only the Canadian wholesale sales report is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 21, 2016)

USD

The US dollar was mostly weaker against its rivals as risk appetite stayed in the markets for the most part of the day. There were no reports out of the US economy, leaving traders to react to risk sentiment. Fed head Yellen has a speech scheduled today and her remarks could set the tone for dollar price action.

EUR

The euro advanced against the dollar but was weaker to the pound. Data from Germany came in line with expectations as producer prices showed a 0.4% increase as expected. The German constitutional court ruling is scheduled today and their ruling on the ECB OMT could also have a significant impact on the euro. German ZEW economic sentiment data and a speech by Governor Draghi are also on the docket.

GBP

The pound was able to keep up with its climb as a couple more Brexit surveys showed a lead in favor of those voting to stay in the EU. Today has the public sector borrowing figure and the CBI industrial order expectations data on tap, although traders could pay closer attention to Brexit surveys.

CHF

The franc was stuck in consolidation to the dollar and was mostly weaker against the euro, even though there were no reports out of the Swiss economy. Today has the Swiss trade balance due and a larger surplus of 2.88B CHF is eyed.

JPY

The yen was on stronger footing towards the end of the US session as traders likely booked profits off their recent shorts. Yen intervention rumors appear to have subsided, allowing traders to prop up the yen in times of risk aversion. There were no hints of actual central bank intervention in the BOJ minutes as well. The Japanese all industries activity index is due today and a 1.3% gain is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to bank on risk appetite yesterday but were no match to yen strength. Earlier today, the RBA minutes didn't show any clues of when the central bank might cut interest rates again, allowing the Aussie to stay afloat. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day so risk sentiment could push these currencies around.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 22, 2016)

USD

The US dollar regained ground against its peers despite mixed remarks from Fed Chairperson Yellen. She reiterated the need for a cautious approach in tightening, citing that policymakers will keep close tabs on jobs data to see if the slowdown was just transitory. She also added that the Fed has legal basis to implement negative rates if needed but downplayed the risk of a recession. US existing home sales data and another speech by Fed head Yellen are lined up today.

EUR

The euro suffered a sharp selloff after Draghi's testimony because the ECB head mentioned that "further stimulus is in the pipeline." Market watchers had been expecting him to reiterate that they're ready to use their monetary policy tools in the event of a Brexit but were surprised to see stronger dovish hints. Data from the region was stronger than expected, as the German ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 6.4 to 19.2 instead of falling to the projected 5.1 reading. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to some of its recent gains as more polls suggested a small lead in favor of staying in the EU. Brexit surveys and the BBC debates could continue to influence pound price action leading up to the referendum. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc consolidated to the dollar but was able to advance against the euro. Swiss trade balance beat expectations with a 3.79 billion CHF surplus versus the projected 2.88 billion CHF surplus. Swiss ZEW economic expectations are up for release today.

JPY

The yen managed to regain some ground during the latter trading sessions, as traders probably booked profits off their recent trades. Japan's all industries activity index came in line with expectations of a 1.3% gain. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave back some of their recent wins when ECB head Draghi's speech inspired risk aversion. RBA minutes were less dovish than expected. There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies today, which means that risk sentiment could push these currencies around.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 23, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gave up more ground in recent trading sessions as risk appetite appeared to improve. Data from the US came in line with expectations as existing home sales were up 5.53 million. Fed head Yellen didn't have much to add to her remarks from the previous day but she did clarify that the Fed has no emergency meeting scheduled after the EU referendum. US initial jobless claims and new home sales are due today.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against most of its peers, except for the British pound, as traders are likely lightening up on their short holdings ahead of the EU referendum. Data from the euro zone came in line with expectations yesterday as the consumer confidence index held steady at -7. Euro zone PMI readings are up for release today and small declines are eyed.

GBP

The pound is facing its much-anticipated Brexit vote starting in today's London session, leading up to tomorrow's Asian session before the official results will be announced. Expect additional volatility around these times as traders price in expectations, with a Brexit likely to mean sharp losses and a vote to remain likely to trigger a relief rally.

CHF

The franc chalked up small gains to the dollar but was weaker to the European currencies as traders might be bracing themselves for potential SNB intervention if the UK exits the EU. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today.

JPY

The yen lost further ground when risk-taking was in play, with some Brexit polls still showing a small lead in favor of UK voters who want to stay in the EU. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI showed a small improvement from 47.7 to 47.8, lower than the projected climb to 48.2.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Canadian retail sales report came in stronger than expected, with the headline figure up 0.9% and the core figure up 1.3%. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today, which suggests that risk sentiment and the outcome of the Brexit vote would play a huge role in price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 24, 2016)

USD

The US dollar scored strong gains on the heels of the EU referendum and better than expected US economic data. Both the initial jobless claims and flash manufacturing PMI beat expectations while new home sales fell short. Durable goods orders data are due today and the headline figure could post a 0.5% drop while the core figure could print a 0.1% increase. Still, risk sentiment might be the bigger driver of price action for dollar pairs for the rest of the week.

EUR

The euro suffered sharp declines as the EU referendum results appear to be hinting at a victory for the "leave" camp. This could bring a significant amount of uncertainty to the entire region, perhaps even convincing the ECB to ease monetary policy. Euro zone flash PMI readings came in mostly weaker than expected, signaling that the region is already on shaky footing ahead of a potential Brexit. German Ifo business climate data and the Italian retail sales report are due today.

GBP

The pound had a volatile time during the start of polling in the UK, as some surveys suggested a victory for the "remain" camp but early results from regions showed a lead by the "leave" camp. The gap has been growing in favor of leaving the EU as of this writing, leading to sharp declines for the UK currency in anticipation of increased uncertainty and a potential economic recession.

CHF

The franc has been advancing against most of its forex counterparts and acting as a safe-haven in the European region. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, keeping risk sentiment as the main driver of price action.

JPY

The yen was able to take advantage of the run in risk aversion during the EU referendum, as the Japanese currency acted as a safe-haven particularly for Asian markets which are seeing the first few results. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls have been dropping on account of risk-off vibes in the financial markets, as a Brexit appears possible. Exiting the EU could mean negative economic repercussions not just for the UK but for the rest of the global economy, weighing on appetite for commodities. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today so it could be all about risk sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 27, 2016)

USD

The US dollar drew a lot of support on Friday after the EU referendum results were announced, as the Brexit inspired risk-off moves. Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected then, with durable goods orders falling short of expectations and the UoM consumer sentiment index suffering a downgrade. The US flash services PMI is due today but traders are likely to be more sensitive to market sentiment.

EUR

The euro suffered a sharp decline on Friday as the Brexit would also have negative repercussions on the euro zone economy. The German Ifo business climate index beat expectations by rising to 107.8 to 108.7 instead of dropping to the estimated 107.6 figure. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today but ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up and any hints of additional stimulus would mean more euro weakness.

GBP

The pound was the biggest loser on Friday after the Brexit was announced but it managed to recoup some of its losses as profit-taking took place. UK BBA mortgage approvals printed stronger than expected results but traders shrugged this off and focused on post-Brexit updates, such as UK Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation. Moving forward, the negotiations between the EU and the UK should be under the spotlight and have a strong impact on pound action.

CHF

The franc scored plenty of wins against its higher-yielding counterparts but gave most of these up when the SNB intervened in the markets and admitted to doing so. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today but traders might be hesitant to buy up the franc in anticipation of further intervention efforts from the central bank.

JPY

The yen was a big winner during the Brexit announcement on Friday but also returned some of its wins when BOJ intervention speculations popped up. Recall that finance officials have been threatening to step in if the yen rallies to sharply and strongly, which was exactly what happened last week. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment should stay in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls chalked up huge losses when risk aversion dawned after the EU referendum results were announced on Friday. Over the weekend, New Zealand printed a stronger than expected trade surplus of 358 million NZD, giving a bit of support for the Kiwi, while the Aussie is getting a boost from stronger gold prices. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 28, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gapped up against most of its counterparts on Monday as risk aversion kicked into high gear. However, a lot of consolidation was seen for most dollar pairs as market participants waited for more clues. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, with both the flash services PMI and goods trade balance missing expectations. The US final GDP reading for Q1 is due today and an upgrade from 0.8% to 1.0% is expected.

EUR

The euro trailed the pound in sliding against its forex rivals, as a slowdown in the UK would also have repercussions on the euro zone economy. The EU Economic Summit is scheduled today but ECB head Draghi and Fed Chairperson Yellen won't be attending.

GBP

The pound resumed its slide across the board after Fitch and S&P announced downgrades to the UK credit rating, citing uncertainties from the Brexit and potential declines in trade, investment, public finances, and political continuity. UK CBI realized sales data is due today but traders are likely to focus on Brexit-related updates.

CHF

The franc was also in a weak spot following the SNB's decision to step in the currency markets. Although the franc is usually treated as a safe-haven in the European region, traders are hesitant to buy up the Swiss currency in anticipation of additional SNB intervention.

JPY

The yen sprang back to life in the latter trading sessions as risk aversion continued to dominate price action. There were no reports out of Japan recently and none are due today, although talks of intervention and stimulus could also prevent the yen from rallying further.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up ground on risk aversion but managed to limit their losses thanks to rising gold and silver prices. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday and none are due today, keeping risk sentiment as the main driver of price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 29, 2016)

USD

The US dollar regained a bit of ground in the past few hours as the recovery in risk appetite failed to gain much traction. The final US GDP reading for the first quarter of the year was upgraded from 0.8% to 1.1%, higher than the forecast at 1.0%. Meanwhile, US CB consumer confidence rose higher than expected but the Richmond manufacturing index showed a steeper contraction. Core PCE price index, personal spending and income, and pending home sales are due today.

EUR

The euro had a bit of a rebound in recent sessions but soon returned its intraday wins. German import prices showed a stronger than expected 0.9% gain but remarks from EU officials during their Economic Summit suggested that they're also worried about the region's future as well. German GfK consumer climate and preliminary CPI are due today, along with the Spanish flash CPI.

GBP

The pound tried to fill in the gaps over the weekend but failed as risk aversion returned. UK CBI realized sales fell from 7 to 4 instead of improving to the estimated 9 reading. UK Nationwide HPI, net lending to individuals, and mortgage approvals are due today but updates from UK officials could play a greater role in price action.

CHF

The franc continued to advance as traders shifted their biases after the SNB admitted to intervening in the currency markets recently. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but a central bank official defended their recent moves.

JPY

The yen consolidated against most of its peers as Japanese officials continued to discuss the possibility of additional stimulus. Earlier today, Japan's retail sales report printed weaker than expected results. Consumer spending fell 1.9% year-over-year versus the estimated 1.6% drop.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie got a bit of a boost from stronger crude oil prices while the Aussie and Kiwi trailed behind. There were no major reports from these economies as the currencies took their cue from risk sentiment. Only the Australian HIA new home sales data is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 30, 2016)

USD

The US dollar gave up some ground but managed to pare some of its losses as risk appetite stayed in the markets. Data from the US came in line with expectations, as the core PCE price index was up 0.2% as expected while personal spending rose 0.4% even as personal income was slightly weaker than expected at 0.2% versus the consensus at 0.3%. Initial jobless claims and Chicago PMI are up for release today.

EUR

The euro was able to extend its rallies against most of its peers as traders continued to bank on smooth negotiations between the EU and the UK. German preliminary CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick while Spanish flash CPI was stronger than expected with a 0.8% decline versus the projected 1.0% drop. Euro zone flash CPI estimates are due today and these should also provide guidance on whether the ECB might dole out more stimulus or not.

GBP

The pound had another winning day, thanks to strong UK data and hopes that the government can negotiate a good post-Brexit trade agreement. Net lending to individuals rose to 4.3 billion GBP and mortgage approvals came in at 67K versus the 65K consensus. UK current account balance and final GDP data is due today.

CHF

The franc continued to tread carefully as traders have been wary of additional SNB intervention. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator showed a gain from 1.24 to 1.35. Today has the KOF economic barometer on tap and a dip from 102.9 to 102.7 is expected.

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent wins as risk appetite was in play. To top it off, Japanese retail sales came in weaker than expected with a 1.9% decline versus the projected 1.6% drop. Japanese preliminary industrial production data is due today and a 0.1% dip is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was another strong performer yesterday, lifted by a larger than expected reduction in stockpiles. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels, larger than the estimated reduction of 2.3 million barrels. In Australia, HIA new home sales dropped by 4.4%. New Zealand building consents and ANZ business confidence figures are lined up, along with Australian private sector credit data. Later on Canada will print its monthly GDP and a 0.1% expansion is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 01, 2016)

USD

The US dollar regained a bit of ground in the latter part of the US session as data came in mostly stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims landed at 268K while the Chicago PMI showed a return to industry expansion. The reading jumped from 49.3 to 56.8, outpacing the estimate at 50.3. Up ahead, the ISM manufacturing PMI is due and no change from the 51.3 previous reading is eyed.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to some of its gains when the flash CPI readings beat expectations. Headline CPI came in at 0.1% instead of staying flat while core CPI came in at 0.9% versus the 0.8% consensus. The German unemployment change showed a 6K reduction in joblessness, slightly higher than the projected 5K drop. For today, final manufacturing PMI readings from the top euro zone economies are lined up.

GBP

The pound suffered a sharp drop when BOE Governor Carney confirmed that further easing is on the horizon. In his testimony, he mentioned that additional stimulus is likely in summer and that they're considering other easing options. The UK current account balance showed a larger than expected deficit while the final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.4%. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 50.1 to 50.0 is expected.

CHF

The franc crawled slightly higher against its forex counterparts despite weaker than expected data from Switzerland. The KOF economic barometer reading rose from 101.8 to 102.4, lower than the projected 102.7 figure but still a again nonetheless. Swiss retail sales data is due today and an improvement from -1.9% to -1.7% is eyed.

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground to its forex peers as the threat of intervention weighed on the currency's gains. Earlier today, Japanese data came in mostly in line with expectations, with the household spending report coming in stronger than expected. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.5% drop in price levels and the national core CPI showed a 0.4% decline. Final manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence data are still due.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to hold on to most of their wins, buoyed by positive data and rising commodity prices. The Canadian economy expanded by 0.1% in April as expected while underlying inflation reports showed strong gains. Chinese manufacturing PMI readings are due today and strong data could continue to keep risk appetite up, lifting comdolls even higher.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 04, 2016)

USD

The US dollar was mostly weaker than expected last Friday despite stronger than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. The reading jumped from 51.3 to 53.2 instead of holding steady, indicating a much faster pace of industry growth. However, construction spending and ISM manufacturing prices came in much weaker than expected. US banks are closed for the Fourth of July holiday today.

EUR

The euro was stuck in consolidation on Friday despite mostly stronger than expected medium-tier data. Manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies either beat expectations or were revised higher while the Italian unemployment rate also came in better than expected. The Spanish unemployment change report and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data re due today.

GBP

The pound was still weaker against most of its forex peers even though the UK manufacturing PMI beat expectations. The index rose from 50.4 to 52.1 to show a faster pace of industry growth but traders seemed to shrug this off as they continued pricing in expectations for additional BOE easing. UK construction PMI is due today and a drop from 51.2 to 50.6 is expected.

CHF

The franc was unable to establish a clear trading direction even while the Swiss retail sales report came in slightly better than expected. Consumer spending was down 1.6% year-over-year compared to the estimated 1.7% decline and the previous 2.2% slump. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen barely budged on Friday as most of the Japanese economic reports came in line with consensus. The Tankan manufacturing index was unchanged at 6 instead of dropping to the projected reading of 4 while the non-manufacturing component dropped from 22 to 19 as expected. Consumer confidence improved from 40.9 to 41.8. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD

The comdolls held on to their gains as commodity prices stayed supported. Data from China came in mostly in line with consensus, except for the Caixin manufacturing PMI which dropped from 49.2 to 48.6. Earlier today Australia reported a 5.2% drop in building approvals. No other major reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 05, 2016)

USD

The US dollar was stuck in consolidation against most of its forex counterparts since US banks were closed for the Fourth of July holiday. US factory orders data are up for release today and a 0.8% decline is eyed, following the previous 1.9% increase. FOMC member Dudley also has a speech lined up.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold on to its gains after data from the region came in mixed. The Spanish unemployment change report showed a stronger than expected 124.3K reduction in joblessness while the euro zone Sentix investor confidence figure slumped from 9.9 to 1.7, worse than the estimated drop to 8.1. Final services PMI readings are due today along with the euro zone retail sales report.

GBP

The pound consolidated against its rivals as traders continued to wait for more updates from the UK. The construction PMI came in weaker than expected as it fell from 51.2 to 46.0, reflecting industry contraction. For today, the services PMI is due and a dip from 53.5 to 53.1 is eyed. BOE Governor Carney also has a speech scheduled.

CHF

The franc barely made any headway as traders are being careful of additional SNB intervention. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today so risk sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen gave up more ground on improving risk appetite as there were no reports out of Japan yesterday. There are still no reports lined up today so risk sentiment could stay in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to advance led by the Loonie, even though data from Canada came in weaker than expected. The quarterly BOC Business Outlook Survey was also mostly downbeat, although it suggested a potential rebound in services and non-energy firms. In Australia, retail sales and trade balance figures missed expectations with a meager 0.2% uptick in consumer spending and a wider trade deficit of 2.22 million AUD. New Zealand has its GDT auction scheduled in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 06, 2016)

USD

The US dollar was a big winner in yesterday's London and US sessions thanks to the run in risk aversion. Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected, with factory orders down 1.0% versus the projected 0.8% drop, but traders preferred the safe-haven dollar over higher-yielding assets and currencies. The FOMC minutes are up for release today so more volatility is expected for dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold on to its gains and failed as risk-off vibes returned to the markets. Data from the euro zone was mostly better than expected while retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. ECB Governor Draghi is set to give a testimony today and might confirm that further easing will be put in place, although the lack of dovish remarks could prop up the shared currency.

GBP

The pound dropped to fresh record lows against the dollar on reports that three of the UK's top property funds are refusing withdrawal requests from investors. This comes after property speculators started liquidating their holdings as prices tanked after the Brexit decision. Fears of contagion and more financial stress are weighing on the pound, as well as the downbeat UK services PMI, even after BOE Governor Carney tried to reassure the markets in his presser after the release of their Financial Stability Report.

CHF

The franc weakened against its forex peers thanks to contagion fears in Europe and the lingering intervention threat from the SNB. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the risk-off moves in the financial markets, even advancing against the US dollar. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could play a rose in yen price action, as well as fears of intervention from the BOJ or Japanese government.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned their recent gains as risk-off vibes were back in the markets, weighing on commodity prices as well. Retail sales and trade balance figures from Australia missed expectations but the Aussie drew a bit of support from the RBA's decision to keep rates unchanged. In New Zealand, dairy prices were down 0.4% in the recent GDT auction. Canada has its trade balance due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 07, 2016)

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent gains despite mixed data from the US. The trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of $41.1 billion but the ISM non-manufacturing PMI showed a strong jump from 52.9 to 56.5. The FOMC minutes contained no surprises but it did reveal that policymakers shifted to a neutral stance even before the EU referendum. The ADP non-farm employment change report and Challenger job cuts data are due today, giving hints on how the NFP might turn out.

EUR

The euro advanced to some of its peers when ECB head Draghi refrained from making any additional dovish remarks. Still, German factory orders missed expectations and printed a flat reading instead of the projected 1.0% gain. For today, German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up. ECB minutes are also up for release.

GBP

The pound consolidated against the dollar and yen but was weaker to the comdolls as there were no major updates from the UK economy. More property funds are refusing client withdrawals, fueling speculations that additional financial stress could be seen. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 1.2% drop is expected.

CHF

The franc was still stuck in consolidation as traders refrained from trading this currency for fear of additional SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has Swiss CPI and foreign currency reserves data on tap.

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite somewhat improved. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday while today has a speech by Governor Kuroda. Risk sentiment could continue pushing yen pairs around as well.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls regained ground in the latter trading sessions as risk appetite improved. Data from Canada was weaker than expected as the trade deficit widened in May and was downgraded in the previous month. Still, the report showed a pickup in volumes for energy imports and exports, suggesting that the industry may be turning a corner. Canadian building permits and Ivey PMI numbers are due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 08, 2016)

USD

The US dollar advanced against its forex counterparts when the leading jobs indicators hinted at an upside surprise for the NFP. The ADP non-farm employment change report showed a 172K gain versus the projected 158K increase and the previous 168K rise. Analysts are expecting to see a 175K gain in hiring for the NFP report and an increase in the jobless rate from 4.7% to 4.8%. Revisions to previous reports could also have a strong impact on dollar action.

EUR

The euro slumped against its forex peers as the ECB minutes acknowledged the potential repercussions from a Brexit. German industrial production was weaker than expected with a 1.3% slump versus the projected 0.1% uptick. Only the German trade balance and French industrial production numbers are due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound tried to limit its losses and drew a bit of support from better than expected UK manufacturing production numbers. Manufacturing production fell 0.5% versus the estimated 1.0% decline while industrial production showed a smaller than expected drop as well. Only the goods trade balance is due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to its counterparts once more after the foreign currency reserves showed a gain from 602 billion CHF to 609 billion CHF. Swiss CPI was slightly better than expected at 0.1% instead of the estimated flat reading. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and no change from the previous 3.5% figure is eyed.

JPY

The yen was mostly stronger in recent trading sessions as risk aversion stayed in the financial markets. Data from Japan came in mostly weaker than expected today, with the current account balance and average cash earnings falling short of consensus.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was one of the leading performers for the day after an RBNZ official said that lowering rates further would lead to financial instability. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar suffered after the S&P downgraded the country's sovereign debt rating on political uncertainty. Canada released mixed reports, with a strong Ivey PMI and a downbeat building permits figure, and the jobs report is up next. Analysts are expecting to see a 5.5K gain in hiring and a rise in the jobless rate.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

Master Trader
Feb 11, 2013
2,554
8
84
Dominica
www.tradersway.com
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 11, 2016)

USD

The US dollar regained ground against its forex peers on Friday, thanks to much stronger than expected jobs data. The US economy added 287K jobs in June, outpacing the projected 175K gain, while the previous reading was downgraded from 38K to 11K. Average hourly earnings was lower than expected with a mere 0.1% uptick while the unemployment rate rose from 4.7% to 4.9%. There are no reports due from the US economy today but FOMC member George has a testimony lined up.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker on Friday, as medium-tier euro zone data fell short of expectations. The German trade surplus narrowed from 24.1 billion EUR to 22.2 billion EUR while French industrial production showed a 0.5% drop versus the projected 0.4% decline. Only the Italian industrial production report is due today.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold its ground on Friday as selling pressure seemed exhausted. There were no major reports out of the UK on Friday and traders continued to focus on Brexit-related updates, the latest of which included a rejection to redo the EU referendum vote. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers since the threat of SNB intervention weighed on the currency's gains. The Swiss jobless rate improved to 3.3% while the previous month's figure enjoyed a positive revision. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen regained some ground against its higher-yielding counterparts but was weaker to the dollar after the NFP release. Earlier today, Japan's core machinery orders report printed a worse than expected 1.4% slide versus the estimated 3.1% gain. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls put up a strong fight against the dollar and most of their currency counterparts at the end of last week. Canada saw a 0.7K reduction in jobs but its jobless rate fell from 6.9% to 6.8% instead of rising to the estimated 7.0% figure. Over the weekend, Chinese CPI and PPI indicated weaker price pressures. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today but Australian election updates could push AUD pairs around.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way