EUR vs USD 01.09.12

[Stevenfx]

It is been a great start for the US stock market that opened the year on the green territory as the major indices rose 1.7% during the week. The S&P 500 is getting closer to the resistance at 1300 points and the NASDAQ is heading towards 2400 points. A break-up of these important resistances might help the indices to rise up to the 52-weeks highs.
The most important and encouraging event during last week was the Non-farm payroll change data that showed an increase of 200K jobs in the US economy. The unemployment rate was down by 0.2% to 8.5%. This surprising news launched the stock markets and supported the US dollar against most of the currencies.

On the other hand, the news from Europe is still bad. Hungary's rank was downgraded to junk due to the policy of its prime minister. Other countries are still struggling with their huge debts and the euro keeps loosing points. All of these political crises are pulling the Euro down and the investors are running away from this currency, but the ECB press conference on Thursday will try to change that. The minimum bid rate is expected to remain unchanged.

[gfs]

Euro FX EUR/USD
Date 21/02/2012
Total Open Interest 295,500
Net Marginal Change 1,416
An Open Interest increased by 1,416 new transactions in Friday’s trading. The total of OI in Euro FX Futures amounted to 295,500 contracts. This level is still extremely high to compare to historical data. The Euro saw 8.921 new contracts being created by traders since the last massive decline. This number accounts for over 3% of the total OI. We now notice more fresh money coming into the Euro market. The EUR/USD managed to keep the steady level above 1.3250 during volatile week and economic uncertainty in Europe. We have been long from 1.3030 and expecting higher prices in this market. More new OI will be a strong signal to support the current uptrend.