Technical Analysis from FXMars part 2

fxmars

Trader
May 5, 2014
57
0
17
USDCHF:
K8hgYMv.png

After the bearish bounce from the green bearish trend line from April 8, Swissy is testing again the lower level of the symmetrical triangle from March 13. The testing
point of the price also matches with the 0.87783 support (red), which indicates the bottoms April 16, April 17, April 28 and May 1, which means that the price is
testing two levels at once. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is testing the bullish line, which connects its last two bottoms. If a bullish bounce occurs,
we would probably see the price interacting again with the green bearish trend line and eventually with the upper level of the yellow symmetrical triangle. A break
through the red support and the lower level of the yellow triangle would probably bring the price to the 0.87434 support, which indicates the previous clearly stated
bottom of the price. In this case, the Stochastic Oscillator could also be used as a position trigger. If it crosses its bullish trend line in bearish direction, this
could be interpret as a short position signal. If the two lines of the Stochastic Oscillator cross above the blue bullish line, this would clearly support the bullish
scenario.
AUDUSD:
FKsz8NY.png

The blue bearish corridor from April 10 brought the Aussie through the purple bullish trend line from January 24, but since this trend line covers bigger time frame,
the break is not significant and it could not be said that the level is overpowered already. Furthermore, there is a bullish divergence between the chart and the
Stochastic Oscillator (green). After crossing the purple trend line, the price dropped to the interaction point of the lower level of the blue bearish corridor and the
0.92065 support, which indicates the 1-month low of the price. The followed bounce brought the price back above the purple bullish trend line. Now the price is about
to meet the upper level of the blue bearish corridor. Having in mind that the price has already reached the big bullish trend line, it could be said that the chances
for a break in the upper level of the blue corridor are bigger and the bullish divergence between the chart and the Stochastic confirms this scenario. If this happens,
the next resistance to be met is the red line at 0.93778.
XAUUSD:
sv0Q0nR.png

After breaking the symmetrical triangle from March 17 in bearish direction, it could be said that the price is demonstrating an attempt for a change in the trend from
January 8, which is also the lower level of the already broken triangle. On the H4 chart we notice that the gold has already transformed the lower level of the
triangle from a support into a potential resistance. At the same time, the 1306.94 resistance is also a neck line of a potential double bottom formation, which was
created after the break in the triangle on April 24, which makes the two events incompatible. The break in the big bullish trend line is a more significant event than
the potential double bottom formation, which makes the formation not very likely to occur. Furthermore, there is a bearish divergence between the graph of the price
and the Stochastic Oscillator, which supports the change in the trend. At the same time, the Stochastic has just interacted with the 80 level and the two lines are
just crossing, which is another sign for an upcoming bearish activity. If the price bounces from the yellow 1306.94 resistance, the next significant support to be met
is the line 1268.57 line, which indicates the previous big bottom of the price.
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