RBA Feb 2010 meeting minutes: Further rate hikes likely to be necessary

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OVERVIEW

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its minutes for the meeting held two weeks ago on February 2 when the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold at 3.75%, after three consecutive 25 basis point hikes. The board members' decision to refrain from another increase in the cash rate was described as being 'finely balanced' and allowed the central bank to evaluate the changing economic conditions around the world and also locally. The rise in the cash rate from 3% to 3.75% was deemed a 'material adjustment to the stance of monetary policy' and that 'monetary conditions were no longer exceptionally accommodative'.

REVISIONS TO OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH AND THE LABOUR MARKETS

The minutes continued to mention the strength of growth in Asian economies (outside of Japan) and the rise in core inflation from low levels and also made a slight upwards revision to the global growth forecasts. Although mention was made of weak labour markets in the U.S. (which showed some signs of stabilisation), the solid growth in employment in Australia highlighted the improving consumer confidence at home and the central bank revised its expectation of the peak unemployment rate downwards to around 5.75%. The latest employment data out of Australia showed another surprise drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3%.

CONCERNS OVER GREECE

While noting that the turmoil over Dubai's debt problems had 'quietened', the central bank made a mention of the fiscal deficit problems facing Greece and other European countries with high debt ratios, which is in contrast with the withdrawal of stimulus by the higher-growth economies such as India and China (the latter increased banks' reserve requirement ratio again last week). Board members noted that market expectations for another rate hike in Australia were high, but may have slipped in the days ahead of the meeting as the Greece situation increased risk aversion in the equity markets

MONETARY POLICY LOOKING FORWARD

The RBA's three rate hikes in late 2009 has given the central bank a certain degree of flexibility in regards to monetary policy looking forward and even though continuing improvement in economic conditions meant that 'further increases in the cash rate were likely to be necessary', rate hikes need not be implemented every month and the central bank could wait and see how events overseas (as well as economic conditions in Australia, especially the labour and housing markets) develop before acting.

EFFECT ON THE AUSSIE

Today's minutes are likely to give the Aussie a neutral to mildly bullish bias in the near term as traders find themselves reassured that the RBA will continue to hike interest rates, albeit in a timely manner so as avoid dampening the economic recovery (a decline in underlying inflation also lessens the inflation risk and hence the necessity to tighten monetary policy aggressively). Further increases in the cash rate at a time when other developed economies such as the U.S. and eurozone are still keeping interest rates at, or close to record lows, will boost the Australian over the longer term with the 2009 high of 0.9406 standing in the way of the top made in mid-2008 at 0.9851.


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