Forex-Metal Daily Analysis - 13/07/10

[Forex-Metal]

Monday, 12.07.2010: Safe heaven currencies grow as negative US fundamentals and European stress-test results are expected. The drop of the volatility show the usual decrease in the currency moves of the Summer trading.

Asian, European and American trading sessions:
US Dollar: Expectations over the negative US fundamentals resulted in a growth of the safe heaven currencies, and the US dollar rate strengthened against its competitors during the morning trading. Market participants expected the decrease of the US retail sales prices.
As the European Ministers of Finance discuss the future results of the stress-tests in Brussels now, the concerns over the reflection of the current situation in the results are growing.
Euro: The European banks’ stress-test results are expected to be released this Friday. More and more concerns over these results overwhelm the market. Some of the released information already show the possibility that the results could be actually negative. In reaction to this, the EUR/USD pair dropped below the $1,2600 mark and set its minimum at the level of $1.2548.
British Pound: The pound showed a negative dynamics as well. The Standard &Poor’s credit agency decided to leave its negative forecast for the credit rating for Great Britain unchanged. And the GBP/USD rate dropped below the $1,5000 level. But after the release of the UK GDP growth for 0.3%, the sterling rate increased and reached the $1.5084 maximums.
Japanese Yen: Following the growth demand for the safe heaven currencies, the yen increased against its competitors. The USD/JPY set its trading day maximums in the range of Y89,20.
Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar dropped against its major competitors, since its former rally was considered overrated. The investors’ concerns over the slow-down of the world economy rehabilitation rate influenced the high-risk currencies growth.
Oil: After the former oil rate growth, the market participants fixed their profits, and the oil price started to decrease.
Gold: The gold prices reduced as well. The trading level was at the range of $1,204.50 per troy ounce.


Technical Analysis


EURUSD
The pair may try to test Moving Average (100) at 1.2789 if 1.2701 will be broken.
Resistance: 1.2701, 1.2863, 1.3028
Support: 1.2569, 1.2391, 1.2181
GBPUSD
The pair has broken 1.5058, the pair may decline to 1.4853.
Resistance: 1.5058, 1.5252, 1.5484
Support: 1.4853, 1.4668, 1.4507
USDCHF
The pair is bottoming. The pair may rise to 1.0726 if 1.0618 will be broken.
Resistance: 1.0618, 1.0726, 1.0821
Support: 1.0439, 1.0380, 1.0275
USDJPY
If the pair couldn’t break 88.64 and rolling back to 87.67.
Resistance: 88.64, 90.04, 91.25
Support: 87.01, 85.16, 84.26
AUDUSD
The pair has risen to Moving Average (200) at 0.8724. If the pair stays above this level, the pair will rise to 0.8903.
Resistance: 0.8724, 0.8903, 0.9028
Support: 0.8576, 0.8424, 0.8272