Technical Analysis 3rd April 2012
The GBP/JPY is forming what looks like a triangle at the highs. The exchange rate has just been falling within this pattern. It has not quite reached the lower support line yet and, whilst it is possible it could simply reverse now and begin rising back up to the highs at 133.10 there is also a possibility that it could fall down to perhaps 130.60 where the S1 weekly pivot is. After that, however, it will probably begin rising back up to the top of the range again.
EUR/USD: downside possible
Eurodollar is still bumping up against the range highs and has formed what looks like a possible reversal pattern. It is probable that there will be break lower and a breach of the trend-line for the whole rally up from the 15th Mar lows. The monthly pivot at 1.3260 provides an initial target with 1.3205 as the next target after that.
The uptrend channel (red) line held back the price. Having tested this barrier at 1.6060 level, trading pulled back down and is now carried out at 1.6020 levels. The price is moving sideways within 1.6060 - 1.6000/1.5990 range. Indicators are turning down, suggesting strengthening "bearish" sentiment, MACD divergence is also forming. Further range consolidation is likely to continue with a possible extension lower, to 1.5950/60 support. Reversal towards the uptrend channel sector will give reasons to consider growth towards 1.6090 - 1.6150 resistance range. Should the price breach a short-term trend line (blue line), we'll be expecting a decline to 1.5830/00 support.
1.0360/50 support kept on holding back the price. "Bears" failed to breach this barrier - the price reached 1.0320/30 level and pulled back up. At the moment it resides at 1.0380/90 level and is about to make another attempt to test 1.0360/50 level. Indicators are neutral, but they seem to suggest a decline as a bigger possibility. Earlier forecasts, expecting the trades to move towards the next target at 1.0220 level are still relevant. 1.0360/50 support breakout will be a signal for that. Should the price, on the other hand, breach a downtrend channel (blue) line and hold above 1.0550/60 level, we'll be expecting a medium-term bullish trend to commence.
The euro-yen pair is trading in a range which may be a triangle or a topping pattern. It is currently at the range lows and where it has found support and it now seems probable that it could rally up to the consolidation highs at 111.00. Another possibility is that the pair will break down through the trend-line from the January lows and continue down in a bearish move to the 106.25s, the 100% extrapolation of the width of the range.
Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev