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Will EUR/USD Manage to Set New Yearly High in 2013?

October 7, 2013 (Last updated on October 22, 2013)

After hitting its 2013 high of 1.3710 on February 1, the EUR/USD currency pair proceeded to trade in a sort of a widening sideways market. It then evolved into a rather strong rally, which lasts since July 10. Spurred by Fed’s reluctance to tamper its quantitative easing program, the currency rate is now quite close to its yearly high. October 3 peak at 1.3646 is just 64 pips below the maximum.

Rising to a new record level for the year would mean a return of EUR/USD to its late 2011 levels. It would not put this FX pair into any sort of long-term overbought state for sure. The question here is whether the euro has the momentum to break the resistance levels and if it the remaining 12 trading weeks hold enough potential for euro-positive fundamental factors. USD is already weakened with both FOMC policy decisions and US government shutdown. There hardly remains anything worse for the dollar that can be foreseen at this moment. And what is your take on this situation?

EUR/USD - a new high before year 2013 ends?

Will EUR/USD break its 2013 high of 1.3710 before the end of the year?

  • Yes. (59%, 10 Votes)
  • No. (35%, 6 Votes)
  • Not sure. (6%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 17

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The poll will expire on December 1.

By the way: Binary.com is currently valuing the options contract for the event of EUR/USD hitting 1.3710 by the end of 2013 at $82.02 (for $100 return), which means that the binary options brokers believe in a higher probability for the new maximum this year.

Update 2013-10-22: I have closed the poll as the price has broken through 1.3710 and set a new yearly high at 1.3785. Those who voted “no” should blame delayed fundamental reports.

If you wish to offer some detailed forecast on how EUR/USD will trade by the end of 2013, please feel free to submit it using the commentary form below.

4 Responses to “Will EUR/USD Manage to Set New Yearly High in 2013?”

  1. Prakash Mishra

    If the shut down stretched couple of weeks, dollar may continue downward trend. But I think only weakness of dollar could not be the strength of Euro. There is nothing so good happening in Europe which will strength it up to breaking the previous highs. I think the 1.3800 resistance will be more crucial in this point of view. Let us see what happen.

    Reply

    Andriy Moraru Reply:

    Yeah, prolonged government shutdown may lead to a technical default on US treasury notes, which would definitely result in EUR/USD rally, at least a short-term one.

    Reply

  2. Stan

    Beautiful support and resistance lines don’t you think?

    Reply

    Andriy Moraru Reply:

    I prefer not think about S&R lines in terms such as “beautiful” :-).

    Reply

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