Forex Blog

EUR/USD posted a sharp gain today after declining for three days in a row as the markets gained on the better fundamental conditions. The  U. S. statistics was mixed today, but still positive enough for EUR/USD to rise. It’s now trading near 1.3937.

Durable goods orders rose by 1.9% in April after decreasing by 2.1% in March (revised down from 0.8% drop). The median forecast was at 0.5% gain.

Initial jobless claims decreased from 636k to 623k last week. A drop to 628k was expected.

New home sales rose from 351k to 352k seasonally adjusted annual rate in April. But the March value came out revised down from 356k. Traders expected a growth to 360k.

Crude oil inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels last week, following 2.1 million barrels decline during a previous week. The overall inventories are now at 363.1 million barrels.

Yesterday the existing home sales report showed a gain from 4.55 million to 4.68 million in April compared to March. The March value was negatively revised from 4.57 million. The April growth according to the average forecast should have been to 4.66 million.

EUR/USD gained a lot on the Forex market today after the European fundamental reports showed some improvement earlier and the U.S. fundamentals removed recession fears in the later trading session. It’s now trading near 1.3266.

Durable goods orders decreased by 0.8% in March after rising by 2.1% in February. The analysts estimated a 1.5% decline for March.

New home sales fell from 358k (revised upwardly from 337k) to 356k in March. That’s a good result considering a revision of the February’s value and the 337k forecast for March.

EUR/USD rose today for the first time in four days as the U.S. fundamental news came out better than expected and spurred optimism in the Forex and stocks traders. At this moment EUR/USD is trading near 1.3549 after reaching as low as 1.3417 earlier today.

Durable goods orders increased by 3.4% in February after the revised decline by 7.3% in January (revised down from -5.2%). The market analysts expected this indicator to continue going down at 2.4% last month.

New home sales rose for the first month since June 2008 this February in United States — from 322k to 337k seasonally-adjusted annual rate. They were estimated to go down to 300k.

Crude oil inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels last week.

EUR/USD posted a rather deep decline today after showing some weak drops during the previous two days. The  U. S. macroeconomic reports from the employment, industrial and housing sectors were all negative today. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.2976 after opening at 1.3150.

Durable goods orders decreased by 2.6%, while the consensus forecast for the decline was at 2%. More than that, the last month decline was revised more than twice from 1.5% to 3.7%.

Initial jobless claims grew from 585k (revised down from 589k) to 588k last week. The market participants expected them to decline to about 575k.

The new home sales declined to the annual rate of 331k in U.S. in December. They fell from 388k reported for November (revised down from 407k) and are below the 400k estimate.

It looks like EUR/USD can’t really decide where to go next — the second consecutive day is marked with almost zero change with a slight advantage for the European currency. The final data on Q3 GDP along with some other macroeconomic reports didn’t surprise the traders enough to affect the Forex market today. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.3971.

The Gross Domestic Product decline of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008 remained unchanged in the final report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was an expected result.

Existing home sales declined by 8.6% in November to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million — that’s significantly below the expected rate of 4.93 million.

Michigan Sentiment index rose from 55.3 in November to 60.1 in December — faster than the analysts forecast (58.6).

New home sales decreased in November — to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407k — down from 419k in October (revised from 433k). The median forecast value was at 420k.

EUR/USD declined today after rising for three consecutive days as many macroeconomic reports were released in the United States. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2939 after reach as high as 1.3080 yesterday.

Durable goods orders decreased by 6.2% in October after declining by 0.2% in September (revised down from the 0.8% gain). The orders were expected to decline by no more than 2.5%.

Initial jobless claims declined to 529,000 last week after being reported at 543,000 (revised up from 542,000) a week before. They declined by a little more than the analysts expected.

Personal income rose by 0.3% in October after gaining 0.1% in September (revised down from the 0.2% increase). It was expected to gain 0.1% in October. Personal spendings decreased as expected — by 1%, following the 0.3% decline in September.

Chicago PMI fell to the lowest level since April 1982 in November — from 37.8 to 33.8. According to the median forecast by the market analysts it should have risen to 38.5.

University of Michigan consumer confidence index slid from 57.6 (revised down from 57.9) to 55.3 in November — only 3.6 index points above its absolute minimum level recorded in May 1980. Forecasts show that the traders expected the index to go up to 58.0.

New home sales decreased to an annually adjusted rate of 433,000 in October down from 457,00 in September (revised down from 464,000). Market participants expected a decline to 450,000.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.3 million barrels during the last week. This growth followed 1.6 million barrels increase recorded a week before.

Weak fundamentals will probably make Fed to cut the interest rate one more time by the end of the year. At least the dollar’s bearish movement on Forex today indicate that. EUR/USD reached its peak above the yesterday’s high and posted the first positive result in three days. It now trades near 1.4715 level.

Durable goods orders unexpectedly decreased by 4.5% in August, following 0.8% increase in July (revised down from 1.3% growth). That was a major negative fundamental surprise for the dollar, as the analysts expected only 1.3% decline.

Initial jobless claims reached 493,000 last week — that’s almost half a million, or 32,000 increase compared to a previous week. A decline to 450,000 claims was expected today.

New home sales in the month of August declined to 460,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 520,000 in July (revised up from 515,000). New home sales were expected to grow to 518,000 in August.

The  U. S. dollar rose against the euro after the important statistics came out in U.S. today. Although the daily gain is almost absent, EUR/USD went significantly down from its daily maximum at 1.5753 after the news releases and is now trading near 1.5683 level.

Durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in June — they gained 0.6% after 0% change in May and negative (-0.3%) forecast for the last month.

Michigan sentiment index, which measures the consumers confidence, rose significantly in July — from 56.4 to 61.2. It was expected to remain at 56.4 level this month.

New home sales declined 0.6% in June compared to May’s 533k (annual rate), but the May value was revised up from 512k, so the current 530k is actually a good surprise for the market participants.

EUR/USD grew today from 1.5571 to 1.5573 making it a second gaining day this week, but it’s still trading below the Monday open rate (which is 1.5627). All fundamental releases were quite neutral today, so they couldn’t help much neither dollar nor euro. Forex market participants await FOMC rate decision today.

Durable goods orders remained unchanged in May after a 1% decrease in April — and according to the market analysts’ forecast it shouldn’t been changing.

New home sales dropped from 525k annual rate (revised down from 526k) in April to 512k in May. It wasn’t a surprise to the markets; the average forecast was 510k.

Crude oil inventories gained 0.8 million barrels last week, but are still near the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.

U.S. dollar stopped its appreciation against euro and pound today after macroeconomical statistics was released today in U.S. Disappointing data stopped EUR/USD from going below 1.5700 level (which was a lowest level last Friday too) and the currency pair went up to 1.5731 from its daily bottom. The trading opened today at 1.5774 for EUR/USD.

New home sales in April were at 526k — above the expected 520k, but the March value was revised down from 526k to 509k.

Consumer confidence fell to its lowest value since 1992 in May — 57.2 down from 62.8 in April. Median forecast value for this indicator was 61.0.