Forex Blog

The dollar fell at a fastest pace in 3 weeks against the euro today as the Q1 GDP decline was reported to be not so bad as expected. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4114 and technical analysis shows that it will probably continue to grow at least until 1.4350 in the next few weeks.

Preliminary GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 showed a decline by 5.7% — better than the 6.3% drop that was reported in the advance report a month ago. Market analysts expected a revision to -5.5%.

Chicago PMI index unexpectedly decreased from 40.1 to 34.9 in May. The traders expected a growth to 42.

Michigan Sentiment index rose to 68.7 in May from 65.1 in April. It was expected to be reported at 68.0.

EUR/USD gained yesterday and ended the week in the moderately positive zone as the fundamentals reports in U.S. were predominantly good for the world’s economy and bad for the low-yielding currencies, such as the dollar. EUR/USD ended the week at 1.3274.

Michigan sentiment index grew from 57.3 to 65.1 in April — the highest value since September 2008. It was expected to go up to 61.5.

Factory orders decreased by 0.8% in March, following 1.6% gain in February. The analysts’ forecast showed 0.7% decline for March.

ISM Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rose from 36.3% to 40.1% in April. The marked analysts predicted a growth to 38%.

EUR/USD fell very deep today, mostly before any fundamental news from the U.S. were released, as the pessimism on the global stock markets mirrored itself onto the Forex market. The currency pair is now trading near 1.3311.

Personal income fell by 0.2% in February in U.S., following 0.2% growth in January (revised down from 0.4%) and coming out slightly worst than the forecasted 0.1% drop. Personal spending rose by 0.2% that month, following the same gain in January (revised down from 0.6%) and coming out also slightly worse than the expected 0.3% growth.

Michigan sentiment index in March was upwardly revised from the previous reading of 56.6 to 57.3, signaling some ground bottom in the recent fall of this index.

EUR/USD continued to fall today for the fourth straight day as the advance GDP report for the fourth quarter showed a considerable decline of the economic output in U.S. The currency pair is currently trading near 1.2795.

GDP (advance) in the Q4 of 2008 decreased at an annual rate of 3.8%. The decline followed 0.5% contraction in the third quarter, but was significantly below the estimated 5.4% drop.

Chicago PMI declined from 35.1 to 33.3 in January, while a drop only to 34.9 was expected by the market participants.

Michigan Sentiment Index rose above the previous month’s value of 60.1 (which was revised down from 61.9) in January and was reported at 61.2. The average forecast for this index was at 61.9 for January.

It looks like EUR/USD can’t really decide where to go next — the second consecutive day is marked with almost zero change with a slight advantage for the European currency. The final data on Q3 GDP along with some other macroeconomic reports didn’t surprise the traders enough to affect the Forex market today. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.3971.

The Gross Domestic Product decline of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008 remained unchanged in the final report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was an expected result.

Existing home sales declined by 8.6% in November to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million — that’s significantly below the expected rate of 4.93 million.

Michigan Sentiment index rose from 55.3 in November to 60.1 in December — faster than the analysts forecast (58.6).

New home sales decreased in November — to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407k — down from 419k in October (revised from 433k). The median forecast value was at 420k.

EUR/USD declined today after rising for three consecutive days as many macroeconomic reports were released in the United States. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.2939 after reach as high as 1.3080 yesterday.

Durable goods orders decreased by 6.2% in October after declining by 0.2% in September (revised down from the 0.8% gain). The orders were expected to decline by no more than 2.5%.

Initial jobless claims declined to 529,000 last week after being reported at 543,000 (revised up from 542,000) a week before. They declined by a little more than the analysts expected.

Personal income rose by 0.3% in October after gaining 0.1% in September (revised down from the 0.2% increase). It was expected to gain 0.1% in October. Personal spendings decreased as expected — by 1%, following the 0.3% decline in September.

Chicago PMI fell to the lowest level since April 1982 in November — from 37.8 to 33.8. According to the median forecast by the market analysts it should have risen to 38.5.

University of Michigan consumer confidence index slid from 57.6 (revised down from 57.9) to 55.3 in November — only 3.6 index points above its absolute minimum level recorded in May 1980. Forecasts show that the traders expected the index to go up to 58.0.

New home sales decreased to an annually adjusted rate of 433,000 in October down from 457,00 in September (revised down from 464,000). Market participants expected a decline to 450,000.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.3 million barrels during the last week. This growth followed 1.6 million barrels increase recorded a week before.

EUR/USD dropped today for the second day despite the correctional wave that was forming during the last three days. After peaking at 1.3288 yesterday, the currency pair is now trading near 1.2733 as the traders continue to dump other currencies and buy U.S. dollars.

U.S. personal income rose by 0.2% in September, following 0.4% increase in August and slightly above 0.1% forecast. Personal spending decreased faster than the analytics expected — by 0.3% instead of 0.2%. This decline followed the stagnation in August.

Chicago PMI declined at a surprisingly fast pace in October — from 56.7 to 37.8. Market analytics forecasted a drop 48.0.

Michigan Sentiment Index dropped from 70.3 to 57.6 in October, which is slightly above 57.5 forecast value.

EUR/USD rose today after the U. S. GDP Q2 results release disappointed many traders. The global stock markets also fell and not the last reason for that was the complete uncertainty about the $700 billion rescue plan. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.4638 level.

GDP in the second quarter of 2008, according to the final revision report, rose at an annual rate of 2.8% — that’s 0.5% below the previous revision’s 3.3% growth. The forecast by the economic analysts showed 3.4% expectation for the final revision.

Michigan Sentiment index dropped from 73.1 to 70.3 in September. This fall exceeded the traders’ expectations — the average forecast for September’s value of this index was 71.0.

The  U. S. dollar rose against the euro after the important statistics came out in U.S. today. Although the daily gain is almost absent, EUR/USD went significantly down from its daily maximum at 1.5753 after the news releases and is now trading near 1.5683 level.

Durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in June — they gained 0.6% after 0% change in May and negative (-0.3%) forecast for the last month.

Michigan sentiment index, which measures the consumers confidence, rose significantly in July — from 56.4 to 61.2. It was expected to remain at 56.4 level this month.

New home sales declined 0.6% in June compared to May’s 533k (annual rate), but the May value was revised up from 512k, so the current 530k is actually a good surprise for the market participants.

EUR/USD soared to the new highs near 1.5885 after the data on exports and imports was released in U.S. today. And, although the indicators came out better than expected, the dollar dropped at a very fast pace against all major Forex currencies.

Import (excluding oil) and export (excluding agricultural) prices both grew by 0.9% in June. This growth followed 0.7% (revised up from 0.5%) and 0.3% (revised down from 0.4%) growth in May for import and export prices respectively.

Trade balance deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May. It decreased from $60.5 billion (revised down from $60.9 billion) to $59.8 billion as the exports rose faster than the imports.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index showed a slight increase from 56.4 to 56.6 in the preliminary report for July, while analysts expected a decrease to 55.8 this month.

Treasury budget deficit declined in June and the monthly surplus rose to $50.7 billion from the year before ($27.5 billion). Markets expected the surplus to grow to $33 billion in June.