Forex Blog

Federal Reserve of the United States of America lowered its primary credit rate (at which money to the banks are borrowed) from 6.25% to 5.75% to add liquidity to financial and lending markets. Federal Reserve (as the today’s FOMC statement says) is concerned with the current situation of the economy growth and the crisis in the credit sector. FOMC also approved that there risks of growth slowing increased appreciably. Here is the Federal Reserve’s press release concerning the bank rates:

To promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee’s target federal funds rate to 50 basis points. The Board is also announcing a change to the Reserve Banks’ usual practices to allow the provision of term financing for as long as 30 days, renewable by the borrower. These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially. These changes are designed to provide depositories with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding. The Federal Reserve will continue to accept a broad range of collateral for discount window loans, including home mortgages and related assets. Existing collateral margins will be maintained. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco.

This suggests some more cautiousness to Forex traders, especially long-term ones. While the short-term traders may reap some profits from the fast moving markets, long-term traders might need to revise their recent strategies.

With an impressively high ISM Services index today’s macroeconomic data from United States was a very optimistic news for USD bulls. June ISM non-manufacturing index came out at 60.7% - 1% higher than May number, and a lot better than expected, since the negative change in ISM index was expected. Crude oil inventories for the previous week came out at a very good level too. They rose 3.1 million barrels - which will probably mean that there will be no problems for the U.S. holidays period. Initial jobless claims were a bit worse than expected (318,000 against 315,000) - but it’s not a big deal really, especially if overall unemployment data which will come tomorrow will be OK.
As for the Eurozone - European Central Bank decided to leave the interest rates at 4% - no surprise here. But they also didn’t mention any dangers of inflation, like they did before, so it might be a first sign for the end of ECB rate hike.
Bank of England increased the interest rates to 5.75% as expected. The main concern for them is still an inflationary pressure, but the biggest locomotive of the consumer prices in United Kingdom - real estate market is showing a slowdown.

Last day of a Forex trading week brought some good results for EUR/USD currency pairs, moving it past 1.3450 level (but still not breaking the recent downtrend). The main reasons of such behavior of EUR/USD can be seen in slightly better than expected April industrial orders which in year-to-year period changed by +12.2% against +8.7% anticipated by experts. Also, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of ECB, spoke about Eurozone economics marking it mostly in very optimistic epithets, that could give Euro bulls some hope for the faster interest rates increase by ECB.

EUR/USD Forex pair was still today again. Some insignificant volatility didn’t even break 15 pips corridor. This day was low on macroeconomic releases, except for major release by the Bank of England - minutes of their latest meeting in June 6 and 7. This publication added some more weight to pound moving GBP/USD slightly higher during the day. Minutes showed that there are two more possible interest rates adjustment for 0.25% by the end of 2007.

Bank of England voted to maintain its Bank Rate (interest rate) at 5.50% level - unchanged. It wasn’t a surprise for Forex traders, but there was a slight possibility of interest rate hike from the BoE, so results are more bearish for the pound. From the United States the Initial Jobless Claims data for the previous week came - 309,000 against 315,00 expected - good result which moved EUR/USD back below 1.3450 level returning to the bearish trend.

Today on 13:30 (UTC) ECB statement was released as the interest rates in the Eurozone were increased by 0.25% to 4.00% as expected. Jean-Claude Trichet spoke about current and expected situations in European economy and the main lines can be concluded in the following: economy is growing at a fast pace (better than expected), while inflation remains strong (because of oil prices) and the price index will be in ECB main view. This can lead to a conclusion that rates can be increased in near future. Despite of this, EUR/USD Forex pair continues its floating around 1.3500 level going nowhere for now.

EUR/USD broke through 1.3400 today on Forex market - showing a new 7-week low. Good macroeconomic data from U.S. was the reason for this break-through. Nonfarm payrolls - a major employment indicator of the U.S. economy - increased by 157,000 in May (22 thousands more than expected), while ISM Index - reported an increase by 0.3% up to 55.0% (against 54.0% expected). ISM Index means a lot in the U.S. economy because it describes its most powerful industries, and greatly influences FOMC rate decisions. Now it is quite possible to see an increase in U.S. interest rates by 0.25% this Fall, in my opinion.

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) released its May 9 meeting Minutes on Wednesday, May 30. As it has been known since May 9 the conclusion of the meeting states that the inflation remains the main concern for the FOMC, while in future FOMC will outlook both inflation and economic growth. Statements presented in the released Minutes generally support this conclusion giving some more power for the USD bulls. This could be seen yesterday on Forex market when EUR/USD hit its new low since April 11 at 1.3406.

EUR/USD touched new its new monthly low at 1.3416. That was a very important movement for Euro bears, but the currency pair bounced back up to high 1.3500 very soon and then flattened down to 1.3460 - showing its volatile nature. Nevertheless, mid-term trend for EUR/USD can be seen as bearish. At the same time GBP returned its positions today on Forex market after Bank of England spoke about increasing interest rates by .50% not the usual and expected 0.25% giving a lot of strength to the Pound bulls. GBP/USD touched 1.9892 and then corrected a bit to 1.9850 level.

Today the April U.S. CPI data cam out a bit higher than the market expected - 0.6% against 0.5%. A higher CPI data can mean a fast increase of the U.S. interest rate by the Fed, which in its turn gives USD a support to rally higher against other currencies. But all in all 0.1% difference can be not enough to significantly move the Forex market in any direction, so it’s better to wait for more macroeconomic data.