Forex Blog

EUR/USD posted a sharp gain today after declining for three days in a row as the markets gained on the better fundamental conditions. The  U. S. statistics was mixed today, but still positive enough for EUR/USD to rise. It’s now trading near 1.3937.

Durable goods orders rose by 1.9% in April after decreasing by 2.1% in March (revised down from 0.8% drop). The median forecast was at 0.5% gain.

Initial jobless claims decreased from 636k to 623k last week. A drop to 628k was expected.

New home sales rose from 351k to 352k seasonally adjusted annual rate in April. But the March value came out revised down from 356k. Traders expected a growth to 360k.

Crude oil inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels last week, following 2.1 million barrels decline during a previous week. The overall inventories are now at 363.1 million barrels.

Yesterday the existing home sales report showed a gain from 4.55 million to 4.68 million in April compared to March. The March value was negatively revised from 4.57 million. The April growth according to the average forecast should have been to 4.66 million.

EUR/USD gained slightly during today’s trading session despite the predominantly pro-crisis and anti-euro fundamental news that were released in U.S. and Eurozone both today and yesterday. The currency pair is now trading near 1.3020 after closing at 1.3002 yesterday.

Initial jobless claims were at 640k in United States last week — an increase of 27k compared to the previous week’s 613k (revised upwardly from 610k). The forecast value was almost the same as the actual reading — 639k.

Existing home sales in U.S. fell in March — from 4.71 million to 4.57 million after rising in February. The market analysts expected a decline to 4.65 million units.

Yesterday, the weekly crude oil inventories report showed an increase by 3.9 million barrels. The  U. S. total commercial oil inventories are now at 370.6 million barrels.

Today EUR/USD rose at a fastest pace since December 17. As the fundamental data reports were very positive in the United States, traders thought that it might be a good chance to bet against the dollar in the favor of the more risky and high-yielding currencies. EUR/USD rose from 1.2916 to 1.3141 as of now.

Existing home sales rose by 6.5% from the annual rate of 4.45 million to 4.74 million in December. The market analysts expected a decline to 4.4 million. That can bring a much needed positive wave into the realty market — the one that damaged most by the ongoing financial crisis.

Leading indicators of the U.S. economy advanced by 0.3% in December after falling by 0.4% in November. According to the forecasts it was expected to decline by 0.3% in December. Although this indicator is quite weak in its influence on the financial markets it can signal the beginning of the economic revival in the United States.

It looks like EUR/USD can’t really decide where to go next — the second consecutive day is marked with almost zero change with a slight advantage for the European currency. The final data on Q3 GDP along with some other macroeconomic reports didn’t surprise the traders enough to affect the Forex market today. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.3971.

The Gross Domestic Product decline of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008 remained unchanged in the final report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was an expected result.

Existing home sales declined by 8.6% in November to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million — that’s significantly below the expected rate of 4.93 million.

Michigan Sentiment index rose from 55.3 in November to 60.1 in December — faster than the analysts forecast (58.6).

New home sales decreased in November — to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407k — down from 419k in October (revised from 433k). The median forecast value was at 420k.

EUR/USD remained almost unchanged today after the yesterday’s slight correction. The currency pair was in the uptrend for the most part of the day but started to fall after the important economic reports came out today in U.S. It failed to reach the yesterday’s open level and is now trading near 1.4671 rate.

Existing home sales in August dropped to 4.91 million units annual rate — down from 5.02 (upwardly revised from 5.00) million units in July. The market analysts expected this rate to go down to 4.95 million.

Crude oil inventories declined another time last week — they dropped 1.5 million barrels after losing more than 6.3 million barrels a week before. U.S. crude oil inventories still remain in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

EUR/USD gained a little today, correcting from the previous daily drawdowns, after the jobless claims and existing home sales statistics was released today in the United States. Dollar was standing at a strong upward position on the Forex market for the last today, but today it reacted sharply on the fundamental data and after a high intraday volatility lost somewhat to euro.

Initial jobless claims soared from 372k to 406k last week after consensus forecast of 380k; the previous week claims were also revised up from 366k.

Existing home sales declined in June. They fell 2.6% from 4.99 million to 4.86 million (annual seasonally adjusted rate). The average forecast was a fall to only 4.95 million.

EUR/USD didn’t change from its upward trend today after the final Q1 GDP data was released. The currency pair continued to grow for a third day in a row and advanced today from 1.5664 to 1.5737 after the most important fundamental reports for today were released in U.S.

GDP in the first quarter of 2008 advanced at an annual rate of 1.0 percent — higher than 0.9 percent growth reported in the preliminary report and it has met the analysts’ expectations.

Initial jobless claims didn’t change last week — they remained at the revised value of 384k (revised up from 381k). They were expected to fall to 375k last week.

Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in May — to 4.99 million (annual rate) from April’s 4.89 million. They were expected to rise to 4.95 million.

Today EUR/USD again showed a good level of gains, recovering from the major drop that was seen on Monday. It’s already up by almost 0.8% and is looking strong. The reason for this behavior lies in the good Eurozone fundamental data and average data from U.S. today.

Initial jobless claims report for the last week showed an insignificant drop by 1,000 compared to previous 302,000 (which has been revised up from 301,000). The analysts expected a growth to 320,000 that week.

The report by National Association of Realtors on Existing home sales in December showed a bigger than expected decline — to 4.89 million from 5,00 million in November (annually adjusted).

Crude oil inventories in U.S. continued to grow in the past week, rising up 2.3 million barrels, compared to previous value. This growth can mean a domestic demand decline and the wish to increase the inventories while the oil prices are quite low.

EUR/USD seemed almost completely independent of the important fundamental indicators which were signaling the worsening economical situation in USA. EUR/USD was falling by more than 100 pips during the day, but then it returned to a more moderate loss – 50 pips.

Manufacturers’ durable goods orders in October 2007 decreased by $0.9 billion which is 0.4% the previous month value. The consensus forecast for this value was at 0%, meaning that the orders shouldn’t been changing at all.

National Association of Realtors announced its October existing home sales number – 4.97 million annualized, well below both 5.03 million in September and 5.00 expected for October.

Crude oil inventories reported by the U.S. Department of Energy from November 16 to November 23 declined by 0.4 million barrels, showing another week without an increase, which is so needed after some major inventories downfall several weeks ago.

This day was very volatile on Forex EUR/USD pair, but it was without a distinct leader among those two. With dollar falling and rising during the day it ended almost at the same point it started. But trend for the rest of the week could have been probably founded today by two important fundamental reports on U.S. economics.

First, the crude oil inventories for the last week fell by whopping 5.29 million barrels. Department of Energy even changed the phrase in its report from “well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year” to “near the upper end of the average range”. With low oil inventories, the price for this vital commodity can continue its fast growth seen during the last days. And expensive oil will almost certainly mean cheap dollar.

Second, existing home sales for September showed decreased by almost 0.46 millions to 5.04M (total annual rate). That is more than 19% lower than the September 2006 figure and also significantly lower than National Association of Realtors expected for this September. Weak real estate reports adds another reason for FOMC to lower interest rates next meeting (31st of October). And that can’t be good for dollar too.