Forex Blog

EUR/USD rose today after the yesterday’s deep fall. It’s still trading below the Monday’s open level but managed to recover more than a half of its loss. Good housing statistics from U.S. made Forex traders to bet against the dollar in favor of the high-yielding currencies. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.3882.

Building permits rose from the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 498k to 518k in May on 508k forecast. Housing starts rose from 454k to 532k in May on 485k forecast.

Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in May, following 0.3% gain in April and 0.6% forecast.

Industrial production in U.S. decreased by 1.1% in May after falling by 0.7% in April (revised negatively from 0.5% fall). Expected decline was 1%. Capacity utilization reached its new record minimum level at 68.3% (down from 69% in April).

The euro fell against the dollar at a fastest pace since late March today as the U.S. fundamental indicators signaled a deepening of the recession. The traders now favor safety over gain. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.3785.

New York Empire State Index declined from -4.5 to -9.5 in June. The forecast for this index was at -4.6. It was a first decline of the index since March.

Net purchases of the U.S. long-term securities were at $11.2 billion in April — down from $55.4 billion that were reported for March. Traders expected $52.9 billion for April.

Export and import price indexes were reported last Friday. Import prices rose by 1.3% in May, while export prices advanced by 0.6% during that month. Both grew faster than in April (1.1% and 0.4% respectively).

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

EUR/USD went up today after the yesterday’s decline as the U.S. fundamental reports showed some optimism for the global economy revival and the traders favored yield more than risk. It’s now trading near 1.4043.

Retail sales were reported with a growth of 0.5% for the month of May; the April’s decline was revised up from -0.4% to -0.2%. The reported value was the same as in the forecasts.

Initial jobless claims were at 601k last week — down from 625k a week before. The market participants and analysts expected them to be reported at 615k.

Business inventories dropped by 1.1% in April after falling by 1.3% in March (revised down from 1% drop). Median forecast was at 1% decline.

Euro declined against the U.S. dollar today after growing during the early trading session and yesterday. The increased U.S. trade balance deficit didn’t help the Eurozone currency to advance against the greenback. Traders probably treated the drop in imports and exports as the negative factors for the global financial system. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.3918.

Trade balance deficit in goods and services was at $29.2 billion in April — up from $28.5 billion reported in March (revised from $27.6 billion). Consensus forecast was not far from the actual value — at $29 billion.

Crude oil inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels last week after increasing by 2.9 million barrels during a previous week. Nevertheless, oil inventories are still above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.

U.S. treasury budget deficit reported for May was at $189.7 billion — up from $165.9 billion in May 2008. The forecasts showed $181 billion deficit.

Yesterday, a report on wholesale inventories for April was released. They fell by 1.4%, following a decline by 1.8% in March (revised negatively from 1.6% drop). Forecasts signaled a drop by only 1.1% for April.

I’ve uploaded the basic details about FXGreece broker to my site today. I guess it’s the first Greek Forex broker that I’ve seen. There were many from Cyprus, but though culturally related Cyprus isn’t Greece. Is there anything else interesting about this broker? Not much, they are quite average and in some properties — below the average. FXGreece offers web-based, standalone and mobile trading software, but the minimum account size is quite high even for mini — $2,000. Other features of this broker include:

• Necessity to send the initial account opening documents via postal mail
• Wire transfer as the only mean to upload and withdraw funds
• Gold and silver trading
• 3 pips spread on EUR/USD

The majority of the professional Forex traders spend full working day on trading. I spend no more than an hour a day to trade. Usually even less. Some traders that I know trade during London/U.S. sessions’ intersection (four hours). Actually I don’t think that the time spent on the market can proportionally increase the amount of profit you get from trading. So, in my opinion, it’s very important to find a balance here. Where have you found this balance?

 Loading ...

This is my second post with some interesting chart patterns that were spotted during the past week and that can still be played out by the traders. EUR/CAD, CHF/JPY and Gold charts are presented. To me, those patters look extremely profitable and constitute great positions. I hope that you are familiar with the pattern trading and can figure out how to use them. Anyway, trade at your own risk. As always, you click the images to get a full chart picture with the complete pattern visible.

1. EUR/CAD, Daily, Falling Wedge:

2. CHF/JPY, Daily, Ascending Triangle:

3. Gold (XAU/USD), Weekly, Rising Wedge:

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

EUR/USD declined today as the unexpected data on the May employment market situation surprised and confused the Forex traders. After growing during the early trading session, EUR/USD is now trading at its June’s low near 1.3965.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 345k in May after sliding by 504k in April (revised positively from -539k change). That was a complete surprise to the market participants as it was almost twice as low as the average decline during the past 6 months. The forecasts also showed 520k decrease of the payrolls. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly fast — from 8.9% to 9.4%, and appeared to be above the forecast value of 9.2%.

Consumer credit declined by $15.7 billion in April, following a drop by $16.5 billion in March (revised negatively from $11.1 billion drop). Forecasts showed a prediction of $6 billion decline.