Archive for July, 2008

Dollar Stronger after TIC and CPI Data

Wednesday, July 16th, 2008

EUR/USD currency pair went down slowly on Forex today after the news releases regarding Treasury International Capital and Consumer Price Index came out in U.S. EUR/USD opened at 1.5911 and quickly formed an upward spike with a highest level at 1.5948, currently it’s trading at 1.5861.

CPI gained 1.1% in June after 0.6% advance in May. The median analysts’ forecast for this month increase of the CPI was 0.7%.

Net foreign purchases of the long-term securities were $67 billion in May down from $111.9 billion in April (revised down from $115.1 billion). It was still above the average forecast of $65 billion.

Industrial production and capacity utilization improved in June. Production went up 0.5% after being down by 0.2% in May; th forecast was 0.2% growth. Capacity utilization increased from 79.4% to 77.9%, while it was expected to remain unchanged.

Crude oil inventories gained 3 million barrels last week but they are still near the lower boundary of
the average range for this time of year, according to Energy Information Administration.

Dollar at All-Time Low against Euro

Tuesday, July 15th, 2008

The  U. S. dollar reached its new all-time low against the European currency and is now trading just a little below that level. After some positive economic releases came out in U.S. dollar recovered slightly but is still trading in a very dangerous zone near 1.6000 level. The new maximum on EUR/USD is 1.6038.

NY Empire State index posted an unexpected increase in June, going up from -8.7 to -4.9. While it still remains below zero, experts didn’t expect it rise above -8.0 level.

Retail sales climbed only 0.1% up in June, while a growth by at least 0.4% was expected by the markets and growth in May was as high as 1%.

Producer price index gained 1.8% in June — above the forecasted 1.3% and May’s 1.4% growth.

Business inventories rose by 0.3% in May after 0.5% growth in April and the average estimate of 0.5% for May.

Forex Technical Analysis for 07/14—07/18 Week

Saturday, July 12th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: buy.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5388 1.5499 1.5719 1.5830 1.6050 1.6161 1.6381
GBP/USD 1.9390 1.9519 1.9702 1.9831 2.0014 2.0143 2.0326
USD/JPY 103.25 104.45 105.36 106.56 107.47 108.67 109.58
EUR/JPY 165.32 166.22 167.81 168.71 170.30 171.20 172.79

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5526 1.5773 1.5857 1.6104 1.6188
GBP/USD 1.9519 1.9702 1.9831 2.0014 2.0143
USD/JPY 104.45 105.36 106.56 107.47 108.67
EUR/JPY 166.22 167.81 168.71 170.30 171.20

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5756 1.5847 1.5877 1.5908 1.5968 1.5999 1.6029 1.6120
GBP/USD 1.9714 1.9800 1.9829 1.9857 1.9915 1.9943 1.9972 2.0058
USD/JPY 105.12 105.70 105.89 106.09 106.47 106.67 106.86 107.44
EUR/JPY 168.02 168.71 168.93 169.16 169.62 169.85 170.07 170.76

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.5940 1.9923 108.07 169.51
Support 1.5609 1.9611 105.96 167.02

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5942 1.9959 107.75 169.62
61.8% 1.5816 1.9840 106.94 168.67
50.0% 1.5777 1.9803 106.70 168.38
38.2% 1.5737 1.9766 106.45 168.08
23.6% 1.5689 1.9721 106.14 167.72
0.0% 1.5611 1.9647 105.64 167.13

Dollar Falls on Trade Balace and Budget Deficit Decrease

Friday, July 11th, 2008

EUR/USD soared to the new highs near 1.5885 after the data on exports and imports was released in U.S. today. And, although the indicators came out better than expected, the dollar dropped at a very fast pace against all major Forex currencies.

Import (excluding oil) and export (excluding agricultural) prices both grew by 0.9% in June. This growth followed 0.7% (revised up from 0.5%) and 0.3% (revised down from 0.4%) growth in May for import and export prices respectively.

Trade balance deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May. It decreased from $60.5 billion (revised down from $60.9 billion) to $59.8 billion as the exports rose faster than the imports.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index showed a slight increase from 56.4 to 56.6 in the preliminary report for July, while analysts expected a decrease to 55.8 this month.

Treasury budget deficit declined in June and the monthly surplus rose to $50.7 billion from the year before ($27.5 billion). Markets expected the surplus to grow to $33 billion in June.

Handling OrderSend Error 131 in MetaTrader 4

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

OrderSend Error 131 is a very popular problem that is usually encountered when testing MT4 expert advisors. What causes this error? It’s called ERR_INVALID_TRADE_VOLUME in the MT4 code. That means that your expert advisor is trying to send an order with invalid trade volume. On the absolute majority of the MT4 brokers setting some EA to open an order 0.123 lots will generate this error. But sometimes it’s generated when the EA, created for mini or micro accounts, is used on the standard account. If you stumble on OrderSend Error 131 during your testing, you can quickly find out the wrong settings of your EA — find the standard init() function inside your EA’s code and insert these lines of code there:

Print(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSIZE));
Print(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MINLOT));
Print(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSTEP));
Print(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MAXLOT));

The first line will give you the information regarding how many units one lot holds when you trade in this account (100000 would mean a standard-sized lot). Remember, that in your expert advisor’s log this line will be first starting from down to up, not vice versa. The second line will tell you the minimum amount of lots you can trade (this is the most usual error; you’ll probably just need to fix the amount of lots your EA trades from 0.1 to 1). The third one will give the minimum step for the trade volume in lots. The fourth line will tell you the maximum amount of lots that your EA can trade.

For example, demo account at FXOpen generates this info when I insert those lines into the code:

2008.07.10 15:13:37 MACD Sample EURUSD,H1: 10000
2008.07.10 15:13:37 MACD Sample EURUSD,H1: 0.01
2008.07.10 15:13:37 MACD Sample EURUSD,H1: 0.01
2008.07.10 15:13:37 MACD Sample EURUSD,H1: 100000

That means that 1 lot is 100,000 units (a standard size), minimum trade volume is 0.01 lot (so, one can trade starting from $10 on 1 position in a dollar-based currency pair), minimum trade volume step is also 0.01 lot (one can trade 0.33, 0.4 or 1.25 lot volumes, but can’t send orders with 0.333 lot size) and the maximum volume one can use to open a position is 10,000 lots.

You can incorporate the MarketInfo() function at a more complex level into your EA, so it could automatically check the allowed values and correct its settings. But if you don’t want to code much, you can just use the code above to find out the right values and correct the settings manually.

Dollar Gains on Growth in Wholesale Inventories, Bad Report on Housing and Bernanke’s Speech

Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

The EUR/USD currency pair declined today before and after the macroeconomic releases that were scheduled for today and even after the speech by the Fed’s Ben Bernanke. In his speech Bernanke said that he will prolong the emergency-loan program for the banks into 2009. This will probably mean less interest rate hikes as it would be hard for the FOMC to raise rate significantly and provide the liquidity to the failing banks simultaneously.

Pending home sales index based on the May data declined from 88.9% to 84.7%, while a moderate decline by 2.8% has been expected. Last time this index showed 7.1% growth (revised up from 6.3%).

Wholesale inventories climbed up 0.8% in May — better than 0.6% forecast, but worse than the 1.3% growth in April.

Carnival of Forex Trading — July 6, 2008

Sunday, July 6th, 2008

Everything Finance presents Five Online Resources for Forex Beginners posted at Everything Finance.

Heather Johnson presents Five Online Resources for Forex Newcomers posted at MojoStock.

Neelakantha presents 8 Ways the Bush Administration Has Caused the Oil Price Boom posted at Currency Trading.net.

Alvaro Fernandez presents Your Brain On Trading 101 posted at SharpBrains, saying, «A trader and neurologist introduces us to the world of the Brain on Trading and the differences between expert and novice traders.»

Lane Wright presents Three Forex Trading Strategies posted at Awesome Forex Alerts.

That concludes this Carnival of Forex Trading edition. This time only five interesting Forex related articles were submitted for publishing. The first two articles look almost the same, but they list different resources and they should be really useful for the new traders. Other articles are too worth your attention.

Forex Technical Analysis for 07/07—07/11 Week

Sunday, July 6th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5352 1.5503 1.5605 1.5756 1.5858 1.6009 1.6111
GBP/USD 1.9531 1.9662 1.9743 1.9874 1.9955 2.0086 2.0167
USD/JPY 103.59 104.29 105.54 106.24 107.49 108.19 109.44
EUR/JPY 163.11 164.60 166.16 167.65 169.21 170.70 172.26

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5491 1.5580 1.5744 1.5833 1.5997
GBP/USD 1.9662 1.9743 1.9874 1.9955 2.0086
USD/JPY 104.29 105.54 106.24 107.49 108.19
EUR/JPY 164.60 166.16 167.65 169.21 170.70

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5567 1.5636 1.5660 1.5683 1.5729 1.5752 1.5776 1.5845
GBP/USD 1.9706 1.9765 1.9784 1.9804 1.9842 1.9862 1.9881 1.9940
USD/JPY 105.73 106.26 106.44 106.62 106.98 107.16 107.34 107.87
EUR/JPY 166.05 166.89 167.17 167.45 168.01 168.29 168.57 169.41

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.5934 1.9915 106.87 169.96
Support 1.5681 1.9703 104.92 166.91

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5908 2.0006 106.93 169.13
61.8% 1.5811 1.9925 106.19 167.96
50.0% 1.5782 1.9900 105.96 167.61
38.2% 1.5752 1.9875 105.72 167.25
23.6% 1.5715 1.9844 105.44 166.80
0.0% 1.5655 1.9794 104.98 166.08

Early Nonfarm Payrolls Help Dollar Despite Bad Data

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

EUR/USD fell sharply today paring the weekly gain as the employment statistics in U.S. was released. Not only employment figures disappointed market participants, but also ISM services index declined faster than expected in June. But for some strange reason that supported the U.S. dollar and it showed the fastest daily gain since April 24. EUR/USD declined from 1.5890 to 1.5695.

Nonfarm payrolls lost 62k in June, that loss followed the same decline in May (revised up from 49k loss) and was worse than 60k of the forecast. Unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, while it was expected to fall to 5.4%.

ISM services index lost 3.5% in June and is now at 48.2%. It was expected to go down to 51.0% only. The current decline in this index followed decline in May, which indicates a real stagnation in the non-manufacturing sector.

Dollar Goes Down on Job Losses

Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008

EUR/USD grew today to its monthly maximum and remained well above the yesterday’s close level after the bad data on employment was released in U.S. today. Other economic releases failed to support the dollar today.

ADP employment report surprised markets with 79k drop in jobs in June, whereas the forecast was a 40k decline. This was the first drop in employment since February according to ADP.

Factory orders rose in May by 0.6%, better than the 0.5% growth in the consensus forecast, but below the April’s 1.3% growth (revised up from 1.1%). Manufacturing remains the only sector of the economy unaffected by the ongoing crisis.

Crude oil inventories decreased by 2 million barrels last week and they are still near the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.



InstaForex Broker