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Archive for April, 2008

Dollar Gets a Blow after Good Start

Monday, April 14th, 2008

After a weird 100 pips gap at today’s Forex trading opening on EUR/USD pair, the U.S. dollar went sharply down. It’s now forcing to stay at as little as 50 pips below the absolute maximum as the Forex traders fail to conclude a definite opinion on how to react on the fundamental statistics that came out today in U.S.

Advance retail sales in March rose 0.2% compared to 0.1% forecast and 0.6% fall in February.

Business inventories in February were down 1.1% compared to January’s value. The inventories were expected to grow by 0.4% and they showed 0.8% growth in January.

EUR/USD Trade Idea for the Next Week

Sunday, April 13th, 2008

The current situation on the EUR/USD daily chart seems like a good preparation for the long position. If you look at the picture below you’ll see three highs almost at the same level — 1.5902 on March 17, 1.5896 on March 31 and 1.5913 on April 10. The corresponding lows of these highs conclude an uptrend. Altogether they form an ascending triangle, which is the known continuation pattern:

EUR/USD Ascending Triangle Pattern

Somewhere next week I expect the upper horizontal line to be broken and EUR/USD will be ready to head for the new absolute maximum near 1.6300-1.6500. I will probably set up a stop buy order at 1.5914 with a stop-loss near 1.5700 and target at 1.6350 to check this idea. But it will probably take a week or two to break the support level.

Bugfix and New Currency Pairs in Pip Value and Position Size Calculators

Saturday, April 12th, 2008

I’ve fixed some javascript related bugs in both pip value and position size calculators. Those bugs prevented newer versions of non-IE browser from actually calculating any results. I’ve also added new currencies and currency pairs to those calculators. Now they can handle 65 currency pairs. Here is the list of the currency pairs that were added today:

AUD/DKK (Australian Dollar — Danish Krone)
AUD/PLN (Australian Dollar — Polish Zloty)
AUD/SGD (Australian Dollar — Singapore Dollar)
CHF/SGD (Swiss Franc — Singapore Dollar)
EUR/CCK (Euro — Czech Koruna)
EUR/DDK (Euro — Danish Krone)
EUR/HKD (Euro — Hong Kong Dollar)
EUR/HUF (Euro — Hungarian Forint)
EUR/LVL (Euro — Latvian lats)
EUR/NOK (Euro — Norwegian Krone)
EUR/PLN (Euro — Polish Zloty)
EUR/SEK (Euro — Swedish Krona)
EUR/SGD (Euro — Singapore Dollar)
EUR/SKK (Euro — Slovak Koruna)
EUR/ZAR (Euro — South African Rand)
GBP/DKK (Great Britain Pound — Danish Krone)
GBP/NOK (Great Britain Pound — Norwegian Krone)
GBP/SEK (Great Britain Pound — Swedish Krona)
GBP/SGD (Great Britain Pound — Singapore Dollar)
GBP/ZAR (Great Britain Pound — South African Rand)
NZD/SGD (New Zealand Dollar — Singapore Dollar)
SGD/JPY (Singapore Dollar — Japanese Yen)
USD/CCK (US Dollar — Czech Koruna)
USD/DKK (US Dollar — Danish Krone)
USD/HKD (US Dollar — Hong Kong Dollar)
USD/HRK (US Dollar — Croatian Kuna)
USD/HUF (US Dollar — Hungarian Forint)
USD/LTL (US Dollar — Lithuanian litas)
USD/LVL (US Dollar — Latvian lats)
USD/MXN (US Dollar — Mexican Peso)
USD/NOK (US Dollar — Norwegian Krone)
USD/PLN (US Dollar — Polish Zloty)
USD/RUB (US Dollar — Russian Ruble)
USD/SEK (US Dollar — Swedish Krona)
USD/SGD (US Dollar — Singapore Dollar)
USD/SKK (US Dollar — Slovak Koruna)
USD/ZAR (US Dollar — South African Rand)

One of the best things about these calculators is that, unlike many others similar ones, these can be saved as a web page on your PC and used off-line, because they don’t require PHP or the Internet connection.

Forex Technical Analysis for 04/14—04/18 Week

Saturday, April 12th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5368 1.5498 1.5652 1.5782 1.5936 1.6066 1.6220
GBP/USD 1.9274 1.9462 1.9575 1.9763 1.9876 2.0064 2.0177
USD/JPY 96.91 98.46 99.74 101.29 102.57 104.12 105.40
EUR/JPY 155.48 157.14 158.40 160.06 161.32 162.98 164.24

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5504 1.5665 1.5788 1.5949 1.6072
GBP/USD 1.9462 1.9575 1.9763 1.9876 2.0064
USD/JPY 98.46 99.74 101.29 102.57 104.12
EUR/JPY 157.14 158.40 160.06 161.32 162.98

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5651 1.5729 1.5755 1.5781 1.5833 1.5859 1.5885 1.5963
GBP/USD 1.9523 1.9606 1.9634 1.9661 1.9717 1.9744 1.9772 1.9855
USD/JPY 99.45 100.23 100.49 100.75 101.27 101.53 101.79 102.57
EUR/JPY 158.05 158.86 159.12 159.39 159.93 160.20 160.46 161.27

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.6001 1.9970 101.93 162.15
Support 1.5717 1.9669 99.10 159.23

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5911 1.9950 102.85 161.72
61.8% 1.5803 1.9835 101.77 160.60
50.0% 1.5769 1.9800 101.44 160.26
38.2% 1.5735 1.9764 101.10 159.92
23.6% 1.5694 1.9720 100.69 159.49
0.0% 1.5627 1.9649 100.02 158.80

MetaTrader Indicators Update

Friday, April 11th, 2008

Two new MetaTrader indicators are now available for download from my site. Both indicators come from forex-tsd.com forums. They are very different, but they both looked quite interesting and useful to me.

  1. Murrey Math Line X — indicates a set of support and resistance lines that can be used similarly to the common pivot points. It consists of 8 different lines, each representing a certain pivot level. Adding this on the chart makes it more readable and can help determine next price stop point:Murrey Math MetaTrader 4 Indicator
  2. TRO MultiPair — a very cool indicator by TheRumpledOne from the forex-tsd.com forums. It shows multitimeframe signals for several currency pairs on one window with several gradations of the signal’s strength. It’s based on many smaller indicators and can be quite useful, especially in scalping and long-term trading. A good scalping strategy is to sell when signal shows red-red-magenta for M1, M5 and M15 timeframes for the given pair and to buy when it shows green-green-magenta:TRO MutiPair MetaTrader 4 Indicator

USD Rises on Better Fundamentals

Thursday, April 10th, 2008

EUR/USD reached a new record high level at 1.5913 today, but after some positive fundamental data was released in U.S. the currency pair went down, as the dollar started to regain strength on the Forex market. ECB’s decision to hold the interest rates at 4% also improved dollar’s positions on the market.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 53k the last week — from the revised 410k value to 357k. A fall to 383k has been expected by the market analysts.

February U.S. trade balance deficit came out to be far worse than the majority of the investors expected — $62.3 billion, up from January’s $58.2 billion. It was expected to go down to $57.4 billion.

Treasury budget deficit was lower than the expected $70.3 billion value in March. It was $48.1 billion — better than the last year’s $96.3 billion deficit for the same month.

EarnForex Newsletter Announcement

Wednesday, April 9th, 2008

Apart from some minor site redesign I’ve added a new feature to the site today — Forex newsletter. You can subscribe to it for free and receive monthly issues of the newsletter with a lot of interesting Forex information. The core of the newsletter is going to be composed of all the main Forex events for the month, some fundamental analysis and the news from the on-line Forex industry. I am also planning to include all the site’s updates — new e-books, expert advisors, indicators, brokers etc. in this monthly newsletter.

The subscription process is very easy — you just need to fill a small form on the subscription page and confirm your e-mail address. Your private data won’t be shared with anyone and you will be able to unsubscribe from the mailing list at any time. I don’t have a planned date for the first newsletter issue — I think that it will be early in May 2008. I hope that it will be interesting to all my visitors and other Forex traders.

Test Your Technical Analysis Skills

Monday, April 7th, 2008

Are your technical skills good enough to earn by themselves? Can you trade without any fundamental information? Is technical analysis can be considered a self-sufficient tool at all? You can try to find the answers to these questions using an interesting financial training tool from Inspectd.com. It shows you only a bare six months chart of an unknown stock with only one moving average as an indicator. You have to decide whether to buy, sell, or skip this stock, the period of holding if you open a position and a percentage of funds to use. Then the stock and is further chart is revealed and you get your profit or loss. A very simple concept but it’s very addictive and very interesting in terms of the minimalistic technical analysis.

Why write about stock market thingie here? Because wouldn’t be very different if the same was implemented for the Forex trading. In fact, before you know the name of the stock it can be completely anything. There are only two factors that make it more useful to stocks traders rather than Forex ones. First, stock’s price range — it can be seen before you decide on the trade and knowing that it’s some penny stock or some heavy-weight stock might help sometimes. Second, the market volume is shown — there is no real market volume indicator in Forex. Nevertheless the number of price changes in a period is often used in place of the market volume in Forex trading. So, it’s not that big difference.

Anyway, I’ve found Inspectd.com to be both interesting as a trading emulator and as a technical analysis trainer. If you like any of these, you’ll like Inspect.com too. It’s a very new site (launched less than a month ago), but it’s already quite popular and a lot of new features can be expected soon.

Carnival of Forex Trading — April 6, 2008

Sunday, April 6th, 2008

Welcome to the April 6, 2008 edition of Carnival of Forex Trading.

Sagar presents 10 Surprising Economic Implications of a Barack Obama Presidency posted at Currency Trading.net.

Heather Johnson presents How to Adopt the Traits of a Successful Trader posted at FOREX EDUCATION | FOREX TRAINING.

Heather Johnson presents 4 Easy Ways to Avoid Forex Scams posted at Short-Term Trading.

Heather Johnson presents 3 Lesser Known Factors Affecting the Forex Markets. posted at You Are The Worst dot Com.

That concludes this Carnival of Forex Trading edition. Just four articles to read this time and I sincerely recommend reading all of them if you are interested in learning more about Forex trading and the possible affect of the U.S. presidential elections 2008 outcome on Forex market.

Forex Technical Analysis for 04/07—04/11 Week

Saturday, April 5th, 2008

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
EUR/USD 1.5147 1.5328 1.5533 1.5714 1.5919 1.6100 1.6305
GBP/USD 1.9436 1.9583 1.9756 1.9903 2.0076 2.0223 2.0396
USD/JPY 95.07 96.94 99.20 101.07 103.33 105.20 107.46
EUR/JPY 151.74 153.90 156.78 158.94 161.82 163.98 166.86

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
EUR/USD 1.5334 1.5544 1.5720 1.5930 1.6106
GBP/USD 1.9583 1.9756 1.9903 2.0076 2.0223
USD/JPY 96.94 99.20 101.07 103.33 105.20
EUR/JPY 153.90 156.78 158.94 161.82 163.98

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair 4th Sup 3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
EUR/USD 1.5525 1.5631 1.5666 1.5702 1.5772 1.5808 1.5843 1.5949
GBP/USD 1.9754 1.9842 1.9871 1.9901 1.9959 1.9989 2.0018 2.0106
USD/JPY 99.19 100.32 100.70 101.08 101.84 102.22 102.60 103.73
EUR/JPY 156.90 158.28 158.75 159.21 160.13 160.59 161.06 162.44

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
Resistance 1.6010 1.9990 102.20 160.38
Support 1.5624 1.9670 98.07 155.34

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
100.0% 1.5896 2.0049 102.94 161.09
61.8% 1.5749 1.9927 101.36 159.16
50.0% 1.5703 1.9889 100.88 158.57
38.2% 1.5657 1.9851 100.39 157.98
23.6% 1.5601 1.9805 99.78 157.24
0.0% 1.5510 1.9729 98.81 156.05


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